Phillies vs. Mariners Prediction
Will John Paxton lead the Mariners to a victory tonight against the Phillies at 10:10PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Mariners are -200 money line favorites versus the Phillies, who have odds of +180 to pull off the upset in Seattle. With Aaron Nola set to face Paxton in the pitching matchup, the over/under currently sits at 8.5 runs.
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From Rotoworld: Nola pitched 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball and struck out eight in beating the Cardinals on Thursday. Nola could be 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA this month if Pete Mackanin hadn’t sent him out to face the top of the Diamondbacks lineup for the fourth time in the seventh inning of last Friday’s start (he gave up three runs without getting an out, turning a possible win into a loss). The 4.32 season ERA isn’t quite what anyone was hoping for on draft day, but he’s clearly headed in the right direction.
Paxton was touched up for nine hits and four runs (three earned) over 5 1/3 innings Wednesday in the Mariners’ come-from-behind win over the Tigers. He tallied eight strikeouts and two walks. James McCann took Paxton deep in the third while Justin Upton got to him for RBI singles in the fourth and sixth innings. It was another tough outing for Paxton, who has pitched to a sluggish 6.94 ERA since coming off the disabled list last month. He’ll look to redeem himself Tuesday against the Phillies.
Bet Tonight’s Phillies vs. Mariners Game
OUR PREDICTION: The Phillies have dropped 13 of Nola’s last 18 starts, are 3-8 in his last 11 road outings, and are just 4-10 in their last 14 games against the Mariners. Seattle, meanwhile, is 5-2 in its last seven home games, is 6-2 in its last eight games overall, and is 5-2 in Paxton’s last seven home starts. The Mariners aren’t much of a value play at -200 on the money line. But at -1.5 on the runline, there a solid buy tonight against the worst team in baseball.
TUESDAY MLB FREE PICK: SEATTLE MARINERS -1.5 (-105)