Last Updated on September 24, 2025 9:28 am by Michael Cash
MLB Best Bets September 24 2025 — Let’s attack today’s MLB board with three data-backed moneyline picks, two live long shots, and a market-savvy overview. We verified the official schedule and morning lines before writing. For added context, dive into our latest MLB betting articles and track live splits on our MLB public betting chart.
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Wednesday MLB Best Bets
1) Atlanta Braves ML (–194) vs Washington Nationals — 12:15 PM ET
Breakdown: Atlanta’s contact quality and late-inning run prevention profile as clear edges at home. If the Braves control the zone early, their bullpen can shorten the game.
2) Chicago Cubs ML (–125) vs New York Mets — 8:05 PM ET
Breakdown: Wrigley fit plus a steadier relief bridge gives Chicago multiple win paths. With run-prevention stability and home leverage, –125 is actionable.
3) Philadelphia Phillies ML (–194) vs Miami Marlins — 6:45 PM ET
Breakdown: Deeper top-to-bottom lineup at Citizens Bank with a stabilized pen. Limiting free passes should be enough for the chalk to hold.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks
• Detroit Tigers ML (+114) at Cleveland Guardians — 6:40 PM ET
Why it’s live: Detroit has a contact-management path and late-inning pop at plus money. If DET limits walks, one big swing can flip leverage.
• Tampa Bay Rays ML (+102) at Baltimore Orioles — 6:35 PM ET
Why it’s live: Short dog with matchup-specific power and a pen that can trade zeros in the middle innings.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
See live percentages on our MLB public betting percentages (moneyline). Notes flag when the public is against our pick.
- Braves vs Nationals: Public on Braves ~80% — aligned with our pick.
- Cubs vs Mets: Public on Cubs ~79% — aligned with our pick.
- Phillies vs Marlins: Public on Phillies ~76% — aligned with our pick.
- Guardians vs Tigers: Public on Guardians ~83% — Public on CLE; value may lie with Tigers.
- Orioles vs Rays: Public on Orioles ~86% — Public on BAL; value may lie with Rays.
Trends & Notes
- Chalk pressure: late September favorites often take late steam—price discipline on PHI/ATL.
- Home short faves (–160 or better) with bullpen edges remain solid EV—fits Cubs.
- Dogs +100 to +130 gain value when public ≥ ~60% on the other side—fits Tigers, Rays.
Today’s Card — Wednesday, September 24, 2025 (ET, picks only)
- Nationals @ Braves — ATL –194 (12:15 PM)
- Mets @ Cubs — CHC –125 (8:05 PM)
- Marlins @ Phillies — PHI –194 (6:45 PM)
- Tigers @ Guardians — DET +114 (6:40 PM)
- Rays @ Orioles — TB +102 (6:35 PM)
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