Last Updated on September 14, 2025 7:37 am by admin
Sunday’s MLB slate features actionable moneyline value as contenders manage bullpen leverage and lineup depth down the stretch. Below are three best bets and two plus-money underdogs built from the official schedule and this morning’s odds, followed by quick market notes and a moneyline-only public betting snapshot to help you decide when to ride the crowd and when to fade it.
Today’s MLB Best Bets
1) Cleveland Guardians ML (–174) vs Chicago White Sox — 1:40 PM ET
Pick Analysis: Cleveland brings the clearer run-prevention profile and the steadier late-inning bridge. Chicago’s low on-base clip makes it tough to string rallies against this bullpen.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
2) Philadelphia Phillies ML (–161) vs Kansas City Royals — 1:35 PM ET
Pick Analysis: The Phillies’ patient top-half projects steady traffic, and their leverage arms shorten the game. At a modest home price, multiple win paths line up.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
3) Los Angeles Dodgers ML (–136) @ San Francisco Giants — 4:05 PM ET
Pick Analysis: Los Angeles pairs superior on-base skill with better bat-missing from the starter. If they win counts early, their high-leverage relievers can script the final six outs.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
Sunday’s Value Long Shots
1) St. Louis Cardinals ML (+149) @ Milwaukee Brewers — 2:10 PM ET
Why it’s tempting: Divisional familiarity narrows the gap, and St. Louis’ batted-ball profile can pressure Milwaukee’s middle relief. The plus-price offsets late-inning variance.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
2) Tampa Bay Rays ML (+139) @ Chicago Cubs — 2:20 PM ET
Why it’s tempting: Tampa Bay’s platoon flexibility and contact suppression offer a live road-dog path in a game where the market leans toward the home side.
Bet this pick now at Bovada
Quick Trends & Notes
- Home favorites in the –130 to –180 band with top-half bullpens close strongly in September (fits Guardians, Phillies).
- Contrarian dogs in the +135 to +170 range pop when public support exceeds ~70% on the favorite (fits Cardinals, Rays).
- Road favorites with OBP and K-rate edges carry stable win expectancy late in series (fits Dodgers).
Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
Live moneyline splits from TheSpread: Check today’s MLB public betting percentages (moneyline).
- Guardians 84% — aligned with our pick.
- Phillies 81% — aligned.
- Dodgers 80% — aligned.
- Brewers 84% — Public on Milwaukee; value may lie with St. Louis.
- Cubs 75% — Public on Chicago; value may lie with Tampa Bay.
Today’s Card — Sunday, September 14, 2025 (ET)
- 1:35 PM — Royals @ Phillies — PHI –161
- 1:40 PM — White Sox @ Guardians — CLE –174
- 2:10 PM — Cardinals @ Brewers — STL +149 (Value)
- 2:20 PM — Rays @ Cubs — TB +139 (Value)
- 4:05 PM — Dodgers @ Giants — LAD –136