Last Updated on October 4, 2025 7:28 am by Michael Cash
MLB Best Bets for October 4, 2025: Division Series baseball is here, and today’s card delivers four heavyweight matchups. Our MLB best bets for October 4, 2025 combine moneyline edges, contrarian angles, and bullpen leverage reads. For more analysis and real-time market context, explore our latest MLB betting articles and track sentiment on the live MLB public betting chart.
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Saturday MLB Best Bets (10/4)
Cubs at Brewers — Moneyline: MIL -157
Play: Brewers ML (-157). Freddy Peralta’s strikeout profile and Milwaukee’s high-whiff relief corps set the tone in a Game 1 script where run prevention travels. Chicago’s road OPS vs RHP dipped late, and American Family Field amplifies the Crew’s contact quality when they elevate.
Yankees at Blue Jays — Moneyline: TOR -126
Play: Blue Jays ML (-126). Kevin Gausman’s splitter-neutralizing righty bats and a plus defense behind him fit the matchup. New York’s swing-and-miss trend vs premium four-seam/split mixes is a concern in a leverage environment; Toronto’s pen has multiple swing-and-miss bridges if the starter exits early.
Dodgers at Phillies — Moneyline: PHI -122
Play: Phillies ML (-122). Citizens Bank’s run environment plus Philadelphia’s late-inning punch tilt narrow edges toward the home side. L.A.’s lineup ceiling is real, but Philly’s top-end bullpen and contact suppression at home push this from coin-flip to modest favorite.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks
Dodgers alt RL -1.5 (+175) at Phillies
Sprinkle: If L.A. gets a front-half spike (HH% to the pull side) and wins the BB/K battle, the Dodgers’ path often includes margin. Small stake profile with plus payout.
Tigers at Mariners — Moneyline: DET +180
Sprinkle: Detroit’s contact suppression and baserunning pressure can shorten innings against command-first righties. If the Tigers steal early outs, +180 is live in a lower-total environment.
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Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline Only)
Watch live splits on our MLB public betting chart. Morning snapshot notes:
- Cubs–Brewers: Majority on Milwaukee — aligned with our play on the Brewers.
- Yankees–Blue Jays: Public slightly tilting to Toronto — aligned with our Jays play.
- Dodgers–Phillies: Tickets shading Phillies — opposite our Dodgers alt-RL sprinkle (contrarian value).
- Tigers–Mariners: Heavy majority on Seattle — opposite our Tigers sprinkle (contrarian value).
📊 View live MLB public betting percentages
Trends & Notes
- Game 1 home favorites often take early money; closing tax can create late dog value on numbers like +105 to +115.
- High-K bullpens with two+ swing-and-miss bridges historically outperform in short-rest postseason windows.
- Keep an eye on wind at Citizens Bank and American Family Field for live total adjustments.
Today’s Card (ET)
- 2:08 PM — Cubs at Brewers — Pick: Brewers ML (-157)
- 4:08 PM — Yankees at Blue Jays — Pick: Blue Jays ML (-126)
- 6:38 PM — Dodgers at Phillies — Picks: Phillies ML (-122); Dodgers alt RL -1.5 (+175)
- 8:38 PM — Tigers at Mariners — Pick: Tigers ML (+180)
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