Last Updated on September 23, 2025 8:48 am by Michael Cash
MLB Best Bets September 23, 2025 — Your daily, data-driven baseball picks, moneyline predictions, and expert analysis. We cross-check the official schedule, morning odds, and market splits to deliver three best bets and two value long shots. For more baseball coverage, explore our MLB articles and picks hub and track live percentages on our MLB public betting chart. Below you’ll find Tuesday’s MLB Best Bets, public betting snapshot, trends & notes, and a concise Today’s Card so you can lock in positions quickly.
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Tuesday MLB Best Bets
1) New York Yankees ML (–260) vs. Chicago White Sox — 7:05 PM ET
Why we like it: Clear mismatch in lineup thump and run prevention. New York’s top-5 hard-hit rate meets a White Sox staff that’s struggled to miss bats and strand runners. With the Bronx bullpen trending up late, the Yankees can cover a shorter outing from the starter and still hold serve in the middle innings.
2) Atlanta Braves ML (–194) vs. Washington Nationals — 7:15 PM ET
Why we like it: Atlanta’s run environment spikes at home, and the lineup’s elite chase discipline puts Washington’s starter in fastball counts. The Nats’ bottom-third bullpen metrics amplify leverage late; if Atlanta grabs an early lead, the probability curve favors a wire-to-wire result.
3) Los Angeles Dodgers ML (–157) at Arizona Diamondbacks — 9:40 PM ET
Why we like it: L.A.’s contact quality and two-strike damage travel well. The Dodgers’ starter projects for the better K/BB profile, and their late-inning reliever mix has stabilized. Arizona’s margin narrows if it can’t generate early traffic; the deeper, more explosive offense gets our nod.
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Today’s MLB Long Shot Picks
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+134) at Cincinnati Reds — 6:40 PM ET
Why it’s live: Park fit helps suppress Cincinnati’s homer surge, and Pittsburgh’s expected-batting-average allowed has improved over the last two weeks. If the Buccos’ starter lands first-pitch strikes, the Reds’ chase issues can flip key at-bats.
• St. Louis Cardinals ML (+161) at San Francisco Giants — 9:45 PM ET
Why it’s live: This tags a volatile price on a lineup that still flashes top-third hard-hit bursts. San Francisco’s starter works to contact; a couple of extra baserunners via walks keeps the Birds within one swing late.
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Trends & Notes
- Home firepower: Atlanta and New York (AL) remain top-5 at home in run creation vs. RHP.
- Late leverage: L.A.’s bullpen run value has stabilized over the last two weeks; that matters in a tight desert total.
- Market movement: Heavy favorites continue to take early money; price shop if you’re late to the window.
Public Betting Snapshot (Moneyline)
📊 View today’s MLB public moneyline splits
- Yankees vs. White Sox: Public on Yankees ~96% ML — aligns with our play.
- Braves vs. Nationals: Public on Braves ~94% ML — aligns with our play.
- Dodgers vs. D-backs: Public on Dodgers ~76% ML — aligns with our play.
- Reds vs. Pirates: Public on Reds ~89% ML — Public on Reds, value may lie on Pirates.
- Giants vs. Cardinals: Public on Giants ~87% ML — Public on Giants, value may lie on Cardinals.
Today’s Card
- Yankees ML (–260) vs. White Sox — 7:05 PM ET
- Braves ML (–194) vs. Nationals — 7:15 PM ET
- Dodgers ML (–157) at Diamondbacks — 9:40 PM ET
- Pirates ML (+134) at Reds — 6:40 PM ET
- Cardinals ML (+161) at Giants — 9:45 PM ET
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