Twins Win Total Prediction
There’s a brand-new star in the middle of the Twins’ batting order, a bat producing enough raw power to make even Giancarlo Stanton look over his shoulder. Get familiar, AL Central, because Miguel Sano’s on the scene and ready to crush cowhide with the best of them.
Minnesota’s projected cleanup hitter had 18 home runs and 17 doubles in just 80 contests last season. This year, he’s already expected to anchor a lineup that has long languished in the power department. Will one transcendent talent be enough to ignite a playoff push, though?
According to oddsmakers, the Twinkies’ fight for renewed respectability has a ways to go. Online sports book Bovada.lv sets the team’s over/under win total at 78.5. That’s marginally better than the spring of 2015, when virtually everybody except manager Paul Molitor’s mother predicted a last-place finish.
Those Twins, of course, went 83-79 on the strength of a scintillating May and a memorable swan song from beloved franchise figure Torii Hunter. They also figured out how to over thrive in spite of an offense that ranked 14th in average, 15th in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging. Oh, and Molitor had to use 124 different combinations.
That’s precisely why the trio of Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer and Sano must offer equal parts production and stability this summer. With former No. 1 overall pick Byron Buxton still acclimating to MLB life, the leadoff duties once again fall to Dozier, whose 71 extra-base hits last year ranked 14th in all of baseball. The 33-year-old Mauer isn’t about to move from the two-hole, either, with $69 million left on that titanic contract.
The X-factor here: Byung-ho Park, who blasted 52 and 53 homers in his final two campaigns in the Korean Baseball Organization. Contact woes occasionally plague Sano, too, but Park’s reputation suggests even more of a feast-or-famine outlook at designated hitter.
Swinging it to the rotation, Minnesota can at least count on having its ace for the entirety of the schedule. Ervin Santana was handed an 80-game steroid suspension last April, after which he went 7-7 with a 4.00 ERA. In his absence, Phil Hughes stepped up with double-digit victories for the third straight season. Kyle Gibson lowered his ERA from 4.47 to 3.84 as well.
The bullpen stalwarts’ numbers jump off the page a bit more. Three-time All-Star closer Glen Perkins hope to have fully recovered from the neck and lower-back concerns that torpedoed his September, while Kevin Jepsen (15 saves in 2015) stands out as one of the AL’s finest setup men. The middle innings need some sorting out, with Trevor May and Casey Fien specifically making bids for expanded roles there.
Such an attitude, in fact, extends throughout the clubhouse in question. It’s not a question of desire for the Twins, but rather whether they boast the goods to compete immediately. Sano’s real coming-out party promises to generate additional excitement at Target Field, but a division crown probably sits out of reach. With a wealth of talent down on the farm, however, the Twin Cities shouldn’t have to wait too long for October fever.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: MINESOTA TWINS UNDER 78.5 GAMES
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