Last Updated on September 7, 2025 9:27 pm by Anthony Rome
This Mets vs Phillies prediction features two NL East rivals with postseason aspirations. The Phillies send their ace Aaron Nola to the mound, while the Mets counter with Nolan McLean, who will be making one of the most scrutinized starts of his young career. With the total set at 9, oddsmakers expect offense, but pitching execution could tilt the balance.
Mets vs Phillies Event Information
- Matchup: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park — Philadelphia, PA
- TV: ESPN
Mets vs Phillies Betting Odds
Odds via Bovada:
- Moneyline: Mets -118 / Phillies +107
- Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+140) / Phillies +1.5 (-165)
- Total (O/U): 9
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
Nolan McLean (Mets)
McLean has flashed upside with his velocity and strikeout potential, but command has been inconsistent. His fastball-slider combo can miss bats, yet he’s vulnerable when falling behind in counts. Against a Phillies lineup that punishes mistakes, his ability to limit walks will be crucial.
Aaron Nola (Phillies)
Nola remains the anchor of Philadelphia’s rotation. His curveball is still one of the league’s best swing-and-miss pitches, and when paired with his improved fastball command, he can dominate. The concern lies in his tendency to allow the long ball at Citizens Bank Park, which could play into the hands of Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor.
Offense vs. Offense
- Mets Lineup: Alonso’s power bat anchors the middle, with Lindor and Jeff McNeil providing balance. The Mets will look to capitalize on any Nola mistakes, especially in hitter-friendly conditions.
- Phillies Lineup: Bryce Harper and Trea Turner drive an offense that thrives at home. Kyle Schwarber’s lefty power is particularly dangerous against right-handers like McLean.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Nolan McLean vs. Harper/Schwarber – How the rookie handles Philly’s left-handed thunder could decide the game.
- Nola vs. Alonso/Lindor – Nola must avoid the big inning; Alonso’s power is a game-changer.
- Bullpen edge – Mets’ late-inning arms have been volatile, while Philly’s pen has settled with José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
The Phillies have the more proven arm on the mound and a lineup well-suited for Citizens Bank Park. McLean has potential, but this is a brutal environment for a young pitcher to find consistency. Expect Nola to outlast him, even if both teams put up early runs.
Best Bets:
- Phillies +107 (Moneyline)
- Over 9 Runs
Projected Score: Phillies 6, Mets 4