Dodgers Win Total Prediction
It was an uncharacteristically quiet winter, player personnel-wise, in La La Land. But will a new dugout messenger help the Dodgers finally regain their postseason footing in 2016?
Shortly after last October’s NLDS defeat at the hands of the Mets, Don Mattingly decided to step down as manager. Replacing him is former Los Angeles outfielder Dave Roberts. While the first-time skipper inherits a stockade of talent, an aging core presents more question marks than usual.
Oddsmakers nonetheless feel bullish about the Dodgers’ chances of capturing NL West title No. 4 in a row. According to online sports book Bovada.lv, the franchise’s projected win total sits at 88.5 games.
A powerhouse pitching staff paved the way for 92 victories a year ago, but a major contributor left for a division rival. Arizona anted up to secure Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke, who somehow managed to steal a hint of Clayton Kershaw’s thunder with a 19-3 mark, 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Front-office execs Andrew Freidman and Farhan Zaidi responded by grabbing rock-solid lefty Scott Kazmir and Japanese import Kenta Maeda. Hyun Jin-Ryu (shoulder) also stands to return to the rotation sooner rather than later.
As always, though, Kershaw remains the standard-bearer here. He struck out 301 batters in 232 2/3 innings in 2015, and poor run support “limited” him to 16 triumphs over 33 starts. Now entering his age-28 campaign, there’s no reason to believe the five-time All-Star can’t actually reach higher. It’s legitimately scary to consider a Kershaw-Julio Urias-Jose De Leon trio several summers down the line.
Most fans’ reservations, of course, concern the current bats at Roberts’ disposal. Andre Ethier’s fractured tibia reduces some of the outfield congestion and should mean additional opportunities for Scott Van Slyke (26 career homers in 708 plate appearances). Carl Crawford, 34, and prospect Alex Guerrero will also factor into the mix.
More than anything, Los Angeles needs a clear read on Yasiel Puig. That 2013 breakthrough seems so very long ago, especially in light of last year’s bevy of hamstring issues. The good news: Puig continues to be an OPS monster, and his 25-homer potential is likely to manifest itself with a clean bill of health. Simply put, he and Joc Pederson must grow up, carrying the offensive baton alongside ever-reliable first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
No skepticism whatsoever surrounds the bullpen. Kenley Jansen logged 36 saves despite missing a month due to foot surgery, and Chris Hatcher has quietly emerged as a dependable understudy. It’s all about that lineup, indeed, whose boom-or-bust configuration can’t be understated. We like individuals such as highly touted shortstop Corey Seager (.318 average in 88 September at-bats) and catcher Yasmani Grandal. In the here and now, however, the Dodgers are riddled with too much uncertainty to run away arguably the league’s best division.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES DODGERS UNDER 88.5 WINS
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