Giants Win Total Prediction
Are the San Francisco Giants due for a letdown season in 2017 after making the playoffs in 2016?
According to oddsmakers at BetDSI, the Giants over/under for wins in 2017 has been set at 88. The over carries a money line of -130 while the under is set at +100. Their odds to win the 2017 World Series are listed at 12/1 currently, while their odds to win the NLCS are at 6/1.
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The Giants are coming off an 87-75 season in 2016 in which they earned a Wild Card spot. San Francisco beat the Mets in the Wild Card game, only to fall to the Cubs in the NLDS in four games. Bruce Bochy is coming back for his 11th season as skipper of the Giants. He has a record of 838-782 with the team in the regular season and a 36-17 postseason record. The Giants have won at least 84 games in three straight seasons and at least 88 games in four of their last eight years.
San Francisco has always been led by its pitching staff. The Giants allowed just 631 runs last season, which ranked fourth-fewest in the NL. Madison Bumgarner continues to be a dominant arm. He was only 15-9 last season but had a 2.74 ERA with 251 strikeouts in 2016. Johnny Cueto was impressive in 2016 as well, going 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA and 198 strikeouts. Jeff Samardzija showed improvement as well, going 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA. The team added Matt Moore late in the season and then exercised his option for 2017. He was 6-5 in 12 starts for the Giants last year, putting up a 4.08 ERA. In the bullpen, the team lost closer Santiago Casilla and reliever Sergio Romo, but added Mark Melancon. He had 47 saves a year ago with a 1.64 ERA. Hunter Strickland is back in the bullpen as well. He was one of the team’s top middle relievers with a 3.10 ERA in 61 innings of work.
When it comes to the batting order, the Giants produced 715 runs in 2016. That was just ninth in the NL. San Francisco had some nice balance in the lineup, as three players had at least 80 RBI while all batting .275 or better. Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Buster Posey were the three. Belt actually led the team in home runs with just 17. While the power wasn’t there, the Giants were good at getting on base, hitting .258 as a team with a .329 OBP. The team really didn’t address the lineup much in the offseason, so the numbers may not change much this season.
The Giants are always a threat with this pitching staff. Bumgarner is still a lockdown pitcher and he provides a boost in the batting order when he pitches. My concern is the Giants won’t have enough pop in their bats to get to 88 wins. They haven’t addressed the lack of power and Posey is getting another year older on catcher’s knees. The total is set too high for me to go with this team, with that lineup. If Bumgarner or Cueto get hurt, which didn’t happen a year ago and they still won just 87 games, then things would get really bad.
2017 MLB SEASON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS UNDER 88