Reds Win Total Prediction
Having just suffered through a 98-loss season, the birthplace of professional baseball should probably steel itself for another historically inept summer in 2016.
OK, so the Reds weren’t quite the 1962 Mets or 2003 Tigers last year. Bryan Price’s squad did, however, bring up the rear in the National League Central. When you’re also going head-to-head with Philadelphia for the worst record in the entire senior circuit, things are quite dire.
A tumultuous winter doesn’t exactly brighten the outlook moving forward. Online sports book Bovada.lv sets the over/under at 70.5 victories for this Cincinnati outfit.
In December, new general manager Dick Williams jettisoned slugger extraordinaire Todd Frazier as part of a three-team trade that brought somebody named Scott Schebler to town. Months earlier, the third baseman had enthralled the Queen City with a Home Run Derby show for the ages. The front office thought so much of the perennial 30-dinger threat that it dealt him in exchange for a 25-year-old left fielder with 40 MLB plate appearances.
But wait, there’s more. Post-Christmas, Cincy cut loose embattled closer Aroldis Chapman. The survivors of Williams and president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty’s purge include Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and a whole lot of also-rans.
Votto, 32, comes off a campaign in which he logged a .459 OBP and finished third in the MVP voting. The first baseman quieted any and all concerns that cropped up following an injury-riddled 2014. Phillips contributed solid numbers, too, while Bruce launched 26 bombs – with 145 strikeouts.
At least the two-time Silver Slugger winner blends power and whiffs. Price can’t anticipate the same from a supporting cast featuring Zack Cozart, enigmatic speed demon Billy Hamilton and Schebler. Catcher Devin Mesoraco intrigues, though, provided he’s completely recovered from left hip surgery. (The former All-Star literally couldn’t set up behind the plate after April 11 last season.)
In the rotation, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake are long gone. The organization’s plan to barrel full steam ahead with young arms, however, hit a bit of a snag with Tuesday’s announcement regarding Anthony DeSclafani. He sustained an oblique strain two weeks ago that will preclude him from taking the mound in Cincinnati’s opener. That assignment now falls to Cuban sensation Raisel Iglesias instead.
Then matters really get murky. Michael Lorenzen and once-heralded prospect Brandon Finnegan ostensibly assume the next two sports, but what about Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed? The latter two obviously represent the crown jewels of the farm system. If lone veteran presence Homer Bailey (Tommy John) returns faster than originally expected, though, neither may sniff the bigs until September.
A bullpen that finished 12th in the NL in ERA in 2015 – with Chapman – won’t massage the wounds, either. Welcome to the (extended) rebuild, otherwise known as the battle with Milwaukee to stay out of the division’s basement.
2016 MLB WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI REDS UNDER 70.5 WINS
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