Last Updated on August 20, 2025 6:45 am by Anthony Rome
The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers wrap up their three-game set at Comerica Park on Wednesday afternoon, August 20, 2025. When considering the Astros vs Tigers prediction, it’s important to note that Detroit has surprised with back-to-back shutouts in the series, while Houston enters desperate to salvage the finale. The pitching matchup offers intrigue: veteran lefty Framber Valdez looks to steady the Astros, while 41-year-old Charlie Morton aims to complete an impressive series sweep for the Tigers.
The Pitching Duel
Framber Valdez takes the mound for Houston, boasting an 11–6 record with a 3.01 ERA, a solid 1.18 WHIP, and 151 strikeouts over roughly 152 ⅓ innings. He’s delivered 17 quality starts this season, averaging 6.3 innings per outing—though August has been a bit rough (0–2 with a 5.89 ERA in his last three starts).
Opposing him, Detroit counters with Charlie Morton, now 41, carrying an 8–10 record, a 5.20 ERA, and a WHIP around 1.50. He’s allowed 18 home runs in fewer than 120 innings and has struggled, particularly with walks, despite a somewhat more favorable 4.26 xFIP hinting at potential bad luck.
Team Context & Trends
Houston enters desperate mode—they’ve been shut out in back-to-back games by Detroit already this series. The offense needs a spark. Detroit, meanwhile, rides confidence from those shutout wins and a dominant home presence at Comerica Park.
Odds & Betting Sentiment
According to oddsmakers from online sportsbook Bovada.lv, the Astros are -129 on the moneyline, while the Tigers are +117. The total, meanwhile, sits at 8 runs.
Market lean tilts slightly Houston on the moneyline, with a modest total that signals respect for both starters. To see where public tickets and handle are landing across books at our MLB Public Betting Chart Page.
Final Thoughts & Prediction
Though Morton has defied age, his overall season numbers pale next to Valdez’s generally superior metrics. Valdez may have cooled in August, but history and his command suggest he will rebound here. Combined with sharp betting movement toward Houston, I’m leaning with regression and the ace edge.
Prediction: Astros win, 4–2, and they cover the moneyline.