Yankees vs. Indians Pick
According to oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, the Indians are a -142 favorite to win on the moneyline. The Yankees are a +122 underdog and the over-under is 8.5.
On the mound for New York will be Sonny Gray (10-12, 3.55 ERA), while Cleveland turns to Trevor Bauer (17-9, 4.19). Gray has a 1.21 WHIP with 153 strikeouts in 162 1/3 innings. He allowed six earned runs on six hits with two strikeouts and five walks over 4 2/3 innings in a 9-6 home loss to the Rays his final regular season start. Gray holds a 3.11 ERA in 72 1/3 road innings this year. He is 1-2 with a 4.86 ERA in three starts versus the Indians in 2017, allowing 11 runs (nine earned) on 15 hits with 14 strikeouts and six walks over 16 2/3 innings. Bauer comes in with a 1.37 WHIP and 196 strikeouts over 176 1/3 innings. He surrendered one earned run on four hits with seven strikeouts and no walks over six innings in a 10-1 home win over the White Sox his last start. Bauer has a 10-4 record with a 3.93 ERA in 17 home starts this year, encompassing 103 innings. He is 2-0 in two starts against the Yankees with a 1.38 ERA, allowing two earned runs on 11 hits with 11 strikeouts and six walks over 13 innings.
New York finished the regular season 91-71 and 52-29 at home, while it advanced to the ALDS via an 8-4 home victory over the Twins Tuesday night in the AL Wild Card Game. Cleveland comes after a regular season in which it finished 102-60 overall and 49-32 at home to earn home-field advantage through the ALCS. Cleveland leads the season series 5-2 with the over-under going 3-3-1.
In the AL Wild Card Game, the Yankees overcame a three-run deficit in the top of the first inning. Didi Gregorius tied the game in the bottom of the first with a three-run homer. Brett Gardner finished the night 3-for-4 with a home run, a walk and three runs scored. Aaron Judge was 2-for-4 with a home run, a walk and three runs. Gary Sanchez finished 2-for-4 with a double and a run. David Robertson picked up the win as he threw 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief, giving up three hits with one walk and five strikeouts. Luis Severino started the game and allowed three earned runs in only one-third of an inning before New York's bullpen was superb the rest of the way.
The Yankees offense is highlighted by Judge (1.049 OPS, 52 HRs, 114 RBIs), Sanchez (.876 OPS, 33 HRs, 90 RBIs), Gardner (.778 OPS, 21 HRs, 63 RBIs, 23 SB) and Gregorius (.796 OPS, 25 HRs, 87 RBIs). The Indians are paced by Jose Ramirez (.957 OPS, 29 HRs, 83 RBIs, 17 SB), Edwin Encarnacion (.881 OPS, 38 HRs, 107 RBIs, Francisco Lindor (.842 OPS, 33 HRs, 89 RBIs, 15 SB) and Carlos Santana (.818 OPS, 23 HRs, 79 RBIs).
Gray has struggled against Cleveland this season and if the Indians have already figured him out, chances are it won't get much better on the road in the postseason. Bauer has saved many of his best starts for Progressive Field and he gets a big opportunity here to get Cleveland rolling in the right direction. Last year's World Series runner-ups might be the most complete team in the postseason and expect the Indians to show exactly why here with a loaded offense, good starting pitching, strong arms in the bullpen and a superb defense. We like Cleveland here.
MLB DAILY PREDICTION: CLEVELAND INDIANS -142