Yankees vs. Blue Jays Saturday Pick
Despite the pitching matchup, is the over a safe bet when the New York Yankees visit the Toronto Blue Jays at 4:07 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Saturday, July 7, 2018
4:07 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre
TV: NYY (YES); TOR (SNET)
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Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Yankees as a -200 favorite. As of this writing, 74% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Yankees to beat the Blue Jays on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.
Yankees' Severino strikes out six in win over Red Sox
Luis Severino was terrific in Sunday's victroy over the Red Sox, scattering just two hits and three walks over 6 2/3 shutout innings. The right-hander racked up six strikeouts on the night. He's putting himself in firm consideration for the American League Cy Young Award, posting a 13-2 record, 1.98 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 138/29 K/BB ratio across 118 1/3 innings. He'll look to extend his dominance when he does battle against the Blue Jays in Toronto on Saturday.
Blue Jays' Happ struggled in last start vs. Tigers
J.A. Happ struggled against the Tigers in a loss on Sunday, allowing seven runs on 10 hits over 5 1/3 innings. It wasn't Happ's day, as the left-hander struggled to locate his arsenal, and was hit hard for most of the game. The big blow was a grand slam my Nicholas Castellanos, but this would have been an ineffective start for the southpaw with or without the blast. Happ's ERA rises to 4.03 on the year, and if this was an audition for teams in the market for starters, they'll probably want another look. He’s scheduled to start again on Saturday against the Yankees.
MLB Betting Trends
The Yankees are 5-1 in Severino's last six road starts and have won 12 of his last 13 outings when facing a team with a losing record.
The Blue Jays are 11-5 in Happ's last 16 starts.
This is totally narrative-driven but with the way Happ struggled in his last start, I wonder if he's feeling the effective of the trade deadline coming. His name has popped up in many trade rumors over the past two weeks, which includes being linked to the very opponent he'll face today. While taking the over in a game pitched by Severino is always a risky proposition, I see the Yankees getting after Happ much like they did last Sunday when they torched David Price in a game also started by Severino. The over is 7-3 in Lance Berrett's last seven games behind home plate in games involving the Yankees and 6-2 in his last eight games behind home plate in games involving the Blue Jays.
The Pick: Yankees/Blue Jays over 7.5