Reds vs. Cubs Saturday Prediction

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs, 7/7/2018 Prediction & Odds

Following a low-scoring Game 1 between the National League Central rivals, will Saturday's matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs track over the betting total? The clubs will meet at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field.

Game Snapshot & Odds

901 Cincinnati Reds (+125) at 902 Chicago Cubs (-147)

Saturday, July 7, 2018

2:20 p.m. ET, Wrigley Field

TV: CIN (FSO); CHC (CSNC)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Cubs as a -147 favorite. As of this writing, 65% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Cubs to beat the Reds on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Reds' Harvey blanks Brewers to pick up victory in last start

Matt Harvey didn't allow a run over 5 2/3 two-hit innings and struck out six in an 8-2 win over the Brewers on Sunday. Well, well, well. Harvey has been a very pleasant surprise for the Reds since coming over from the Mets, and Sunday may have been his best start in a Cincinnati uniform. He didn't walk anyone, and when Harvey is able to get ahead of hitters, he has a chance to be a competent hurler, as you can see from that line. His ERA has now dropped from 6.17 on May 16 to a 4.91, and he's allowed just three runs in his last three starts total. Harvey will toe the rubber again against the Cubs on Saturday.

Cubs' Chatwood pounded for seven runs by Twins

Tyler Chatwood got taken out behind the woodshed on Saturday, surrendering seven runs in five innings but managed to avoid a loss against the Twins. He gave up a three-run double to Joe Mauer in the second inning, a two-run homer to Eddie Rosario and a two-run single to Ehire Adrianza in the fifth. He struck out six, issued three walks and yielded seven total base hits. His record holds at 3-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 15 starts. He has issued a league-high 66 walks in 73 1/3 innings, leading to a frighteningly high 1.75 WHIP that would be by far the worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard.

MLB Betting Trends

Cincinnati

Following their victory on Friday afternoon, the Reds are now 5-1 in their last six games and 4-1 in their last five road contests.

Chicago

Despite the loss yesterday, the Cubs have still won six of seven overall.

Prediction:

The game yesterday was low-scoring between these two teams but I like the over this afternoon. Matt Harvey has been better than expected in Cincinnati but that doesn't make him good as a whole. He's limiting walks (6.2%) but he's still allowing a ton of hard contact (39.6%) and he's not generating a ton of strikeouts at 17.6%.

On the other side, Chatwood has been horrendous in his first season with the Cubs. He owns a 4.54 ERA but his 5.84 SIERA indicates that he's been worse than even his ERA suggests. Unlike Harvey, he's limiting hard contact (29.0%) and keeping the ball on the ground (54.4%) but he's walking batters at a 19.4% clip. Given the pitching matchup and throw in the fact that Adrian Johnson is behind the plate (over is 12-3 in games he's called this year) and this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair.

 

The Pick: Reds/Cubs over

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