Cowboys vs. Titans Free Pick
I like Dallas as a 3.5-point road underdog in this contest. The Cowboys just got beat 28-17 by San Francisco and not many people are giving them a chance in this game. But looking closer at the game, Dallas actually out gained the 49ers 382-319. It was Romo who had three interceptions and a fumble by Demarco Murray that led to the loss.
That said, I don't think the Cowboys can play any worse and I really think they will turn it around this afternoon. Only once in Romo's career has he followed up a game with three interceptions with more than one pick the next game. He's his own worst critic and has taken the blame for the loss to the 49ers and he will bounce back in this game.
The Cowboys have been a good road dog lately. In 2013, Dallas went 4-1 ATS as a 2-3 point road dog and are 7-3 ATS in their L10 as a road dog of +2-+4 points. They get even better vs. the AFC as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine as underdogs. The Titans on the other hand are just 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite of -1 to -4 points.
While Dallas was -4 in turnovers last week, Tennessee was +3. So many times in football, these turnovers average out and I am looking for Dallas to come up with some plays in this game that will get them the cover.
While a lot has been said about the Dallas defense, they held their own versus the 49ers last week. I think the Tennessee defense will be challenged in this game by the Dallas offense. They have more offensive weapons than the Kansas City Chiefs and the cornerbacks of the Titans will be tested.
While HC Ken Whisenhunt is a great coach, it should be noted that he is 1-10 ATS coming off a SU underdog win vs. an opponent coming off a straight up loss. Look for the Cowboys to win the turnover battle in this game and to make some big plays down field while utilizing Murray in the backfield for a 27-24 win.