Will it be a Heat-Spurs rematch?
LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) – The Heat and Spurs’ NBA Finals matchup odds are currently 6/5 but are they smart bets to reach the title game?
While most NBA fans would like to see a Miami Heat/ San Antonio Spurs NBA Finals matchup, I have to disagree. Currently, a Heat/Spurs Finals is at 6/5 odds and this might seem like a value play if you are a Miami fan and feel like LeBron and Co. can overcome a 0-1 deficit while not having home court advantage.
I like the Pacers to win the series against Miami and advance to the NBA Finals. I made a play on them +325 to win the series, and currently we can make another play at +275 to see a Pacers/Spurs NBA Finals matchup. I like the value in this wager for a number of reasons.
For the Pacers, they secured home court advantage in this series which was a point of emphasis for them this season. They furthermore protected their home court in Game 1 with an 11 point win, as they sent a statement to the Miami Heat. If there is a team that can overcome an early 0-1 deficit, it is LeBron and CO., but I strongly feel they are in trouble in this series. Indiana has had to overcome a lot of adversity this season after the All-Star Break and this has only made the Pacers stronger. They have once again developed the team chemistry to grind out and win games. Roy Hibbert has once again regained his confidence and DeShawn Stephenson will outplay Dwayne Wade in this series. Paul George is once again playing like an elite player on BOTH sides of the ball, and let me also remind you the Pacers are the #1 defensive team in the NBA. The home team is 9-0 SU now in the last 9 Miami/Indiana matchups, and with the Pacers securing home court, they appear to be in the driver's seat.
For the Spurs, they captured a convincing win in Game 1 vs. the Thunder. After getting swept 4-0 in the regular season by Oklahoma City, San Antonio let it be known that the Playoffs are a whole different story. It helped that Serge Ibaka did not play in this game, and that should be the nail in the coffin for the Thunder as Ibaka is expected to be out for the remainder of the series. While they have the NBA MVP Durant that will not lay down without a fight, the Thunder clearly lack depth in this matchup. Durant can only do so much but he still needs help from the other guys. I feel Ibaka is more important to this team than Westbrook and it showed in Game 1. Durant and Westbrook put up 53 points combined while the other three starters only scored five points. The Thunder have plenty of scoring options on the perimeter, but their interior depth is the problem. Collison,Perkins, Butler, and Steven Adams are no match for the Spurs. Duncan , Leonard, and Boris Diaw will continue to have their way and I see the Spurs ending this series in 6 games.
In closing, with both the Pacers and the Spurs securing home court advantage and already up with a 1-0 lead in the series, this is too much value to pass up at +275 odds to see them play in the NBA Finals.