How have recent champs done ATS?

nfc afc championship game odds trends nfl

LAS VEGAS, NV (The Spread) - The number one question on the betting public’s mind is: Who will cover this Sunday and claim their spot in this year’s Super Bowl?

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While Denver has been a heavy favorite all year long, New England has once emerged again in the AFC title game despite suffering multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball.  With the thought of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick also losing Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski for a large portion of the season, the betting public consistently went opposite of the Patriots during the first half of the season, only to find out that New England’s winning formula has thrived once more. 

In the NFC title game, meanwhile, Seattle and San Francisco meet for the third time this year with a trip to the NFL title game on the line. Both of these teams split the previous two meetings against each other, as the Seahawks routed the 49ers in Seattle in Week 2 and the Niners winning a close game in San Francisco late in the year.

While the line favors each home team, let’s take a closer look at recent trends facing each team involved this weekend. 

Brady has dominated Peyton Manning, leading teams in this situation winning outright over 60% of the time and the underdog has covered the last two seasons in the AFC Championship. 

In the NFC, Seattle has dominated at home but is only favored by a field goal. The Niners covered as a 3.5-point favorite last year against the Falcons while the Giants covered as a 2-point underdog against San Francisco in 2012. The Packers also covered as a road favorite versus the Bears in 2011 while the Vikings covered as a 4-point road underdog against the Saints in 2010. In summary, the road team has covered five out of the last seven years, although the favorite has hit in only three of the last seven years.

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