Due to potential inclement weather on Thursday and Friday, the starting times for Rounds 1 and 2 at the PGA Tour Truist Championship will begin 11:09 a.m. ET on Thursday. What are the top favorites, sleepers and longshots for this weekend?
Top Favorites
Rory McIlroy (+450)
Preview: Rory is the clear favorite, as usual. He’s been in strong form, showing consistency in strokes gained off the tee and approach—both crucial for this type of course setup.
Prediction: Likely top 5, and a win wouldn’t be surprising. However, with odds this short, there’s limited betting value unless you’re parlaying or picking a top finish.
Collin Morikawa (+1400) & Ludvig Åberg (+1400)
Morikawa: Gained momentum with sharp iron play recently. If the putter gets hot, he can absolutely win.
Åberg: The Swede is surging with solid ball-striking and confidence. Strong upside.
Prediction: Morikawa is the safer play for top 10; Åberg is your higher-risk/higher-reward winner pick.
Justin Thomas (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1600)
JT: Trending better in form, especially around the greens.
Xander: Consistent top-10 machine, but still struggles to close.
Prediction: Xander is safer for top 10/20 bets, JT is a sneaky win candidate if he gets dialed in early.
Mid-Tier Contenders (Value Plays)
Viktor Hovland (+2500)
Quiet season so far, but at this price, it’s a buy-low opportunity for an elite ball-striker.
Prediction: High ceiling if short game holds up. Strong top-10 bet.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) & Jordan Spieth (+2500)
Fleetwood: Reliable but rarely wins on U.S. soil.
Spieth: Form is volatile, but if he clicks, he’s a Sunday threat.
Prediction: Spieth has more upside; Fleetwood safer for top 20.
Russell Henley (+2800) & Corey Conners (+3000)
Excellent tee-to-green players; course could favor their styles.
Prediction: Top 10 is realistic for both, particularly Henley on a shorter setup.
Sleepers & Dark Horses
Daniel Berger (+3500)
Returning from injury but showing signs of his old form.
Prediction: Solid top-20 dart throw with upside.
Sungjae Im (+4500) & Keegan Bradley (+5000)
Im: Underperforming in 2025, but this price reflects value.
Bradley: Course fit and experience make him a strong top-10 play.
Prediction: Keegan > Sungjae here.
Aaron Rai (+5500) & Robert MacIntyre (+5500)
Rai: Solid ball-striker, could contend if he gets the putter working.
MacIntyre: Tough competitor; not a bad long shot.
Prediction: Rai top-20; MacIntyre worth a flier.
Best Longshot Bets
Sahith Theegala (+10000)
Too much talent to be this low. Boom-or-bust but capable of winning.
Prediction: Top 10 sleeper pick.
Tony Finau (+8000)
Odds this long are rare for him. Poor recent form, but talent can’t be ignored.
Prediction: High risk, high reward.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+10000)
Another surprise longshot. If healthy, he can contend.
Prediction: Value in a top-20 bet.
Predicted Winner & Top 5
Winner Prediction: Collin Morikawa (+1400)
Top 5 Finish Picks:
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Russell Henley
Keegan Bradley
Sahith Theegala (dark horse)