Sam Burns never planned to be here. Two weeks after the birth of his daughter, he changed his mind and flew from Louisiana to Royal Birkdale, and now he carries a two-shot lead into Sunday’s final round of the 2026 Open Championship. Burns sits at 10-under 200 after a record-tying 62 and a Saturday 65, and he will play the last group alongside 39-year-old New Zealander Ryan Fox.
The chase pack is dangerous and bunched, but our top pick still starts with the man in front. Before the week began we laid out our pre-tournament predictions and best bets; now we narrow to the players who can actually win it. Below we break down the leaderboard, the updated Sunday odds, and three picks for the final major of the year.
Last Updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026
2026 The Open Championship — Final Round Time & How to Watch
| Where | Royal Birkdale, Southport, England |
| When | Sunday, July 19, 2026 – coverage from 4:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network, NBC, Peacock |
R3 Recap and Leaderboard Update
Burns owns the 54-hole lead at 10-under, two clear of the field. Fox and Si Woo Kim share second at 8-under. Ryan Gerard and Lucas Herbert follow at 7-under, with Ludvig Åberg, Bryson DeChambeau and Jackson Suber a shot further back at 6-under. As the Associated Press noted in its third-round wrap, eight players were separated by just four shots heading into Sunday.
Moving day belonged to the record book. Fox became the third player this week to match the major championship scoring record with a 62, following the 62s that Herbert and Burns each posted on Friday. Burns then answered with a clean 65 while playing alongside DeChambeau, whose two-shot penalty from Friday for improving the path of his swing dropped him out of the final group. Bryson pressed on for a 69 and remains the only player inside the top 10 who owns a major.
Scottie Scheffler could not buy a putt in his round of 70 and sits six back at 4-under, alongside Xander Schauffele, who shot 66. Southport’s own Tommy Fleetwood carded a 69 and trails by five at 5-under. The course is baked, brown and running fast, and with the wind down since the opening round, avoiding the bunkers has been the biggest test. The final pairing of Burns and Fox goes off in the late-morning ET window on Sunday.
2026 The Open Championship — Top Odds to Win
| Name | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Burns | +110 |
| Si Woo Kim | +450 |
| Ryan Fox | +800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +900 |
| Ryan Gerard | +1200 |
| Ludvig Åberg | +1400 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2200 |
| Lucas Herbert | +2500 |
| Jackson Suber | +3500 |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 18, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest Golf Odds – Props
Top Pick to Win — Sam Burns
The Pick: Sam Burns to win (+110)
Burns starts Sunday exactly where a handicapper wants a favorite: in front, with a cushion, and playing loose. He tied the major scoring record on Friday, then did the harder thing and backed it up with a bogey-free-looking 65 in the third-round spotlight. His two-shot margin is not enormous, but it means the chasers must both catch him and pass him. On a course this gettable, control off the tee matters more than length, and Burns has kept the ball out of trouble all week.
The case against is real, and it is the reason +110 is a fair price rather than a gift. Burns is still chasing his first major. He held the 54-hole lead at the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont and stumbled to a Sunday 78, and links golf remains newer terrain for him. Fox just proved a 62 is available on this layout, so a clean start by Burns is not optional. Still, the combination of form, position and a settled mindset makes him the most likely winner, and we will side with the leader.
Value Play — Ludvig Åberg
The Pick: Ludvig Åberg to win (+1400)
Four shots back with one of the best ball-striking profiles in the field, Åberg is the value play. Firm, fast links rewards precise iron play, and his Saturday 67 kept him inside the eight-man cluster that AP flagged as live for Sunday. He has already shown he can contend on the biggest stage, having finished runner-up at the 2024 Masters in his first start there. At +1400, a closing 65 or 66 would put real pressure on Burns and offers a far better payout than the short prices at the top.
The counterpoint is math and experience. Åberg has to make up four strokes and pass several players to do it, and he has not yet closed a major from behind. If Burns plays a steady round, the number simply may not be there. As a smaller-stake swing at a price, though, the upside is worth it.
Final Round Outlook — Picks and Final Thoughts
The back nine at Royal Birkdale will decide this, and the storyline that could shake the grandstands is a local one. The Pick: Tommy Fleetwood to win (+2200) is the longshot flier. Fleetwood grew up in Southport, knows this ground as well as anyone in the field, and will have the loudest gallery of the day pulling him home. His steady 69 on Saturday kept him within range, and a course this receptive invites the kind of low number he is capable of posting.
The obvious risk is the five-shot gap. Fleetwood needs a special round and some help from the leaders, and he has spent years learning how narrow that path can be. Scheffler, six back at +2200, is the other name worth watching. He entered the week as the betting favorite at Birkdale, and he has been elite tee-to-green all week, let down only by the putter. If a few fall early, the world No. 1 is dangerous. For our card, the leaders remain the safer ground.
Final round picks: Sam Burns to win (+110) as the top play, Ludvig Åberg to win (+1400) as the value, and Tommy Fleetwood to win (+2200) as a hometown longshot. Every pick sits inside the realistic contender window, and every one comes with a clear way to be wrong.
FAQ
Who is leading The Open after Round 3?
Sam Burns leads at 10-under 200, two shots clear of Ryan Fox and Si Woo Kim, who share second at 8-under.
Who is in the final pairing on Sunday?
Leader Sam Burns is paired with Ryan Fox in the final group. Si Woo Kim, also at 8-under, plays in the group ahead.
When does the final round start and what channel is it on?
Sunday’s final round is July 19, 2026. U.S. coverage begins on USA Network at 4:00 a.m. ET, with NBC picking up at 7:00 a.m. ET. Peacock streams the action, including featured-group coverage.
Who won The Open Championship in 2025?
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open at Royal Portrush, finishing four shots clear of Harris English for his first Claret Jug.