[garbageman]

Results 6-4, slight improvement. Will keep tweaking, no time today, more picks next week, shooting for 80%

Wins
WKU
SJST
SJST / NM OVER
USF
USF OVER
SDST

Losses
WKU/DEL UNDER
BYU
BYU UNDER
SDST UNDER

[garbageman]

anything on NewMexSt?

[garbageman]

Kickoff pending….

[garbageman]

Well what’s the play sir?? Lol

[garbageman]

Tim you know we all appreciate what you do here. Looking forward to some college pigskin plays tonight! Home dogs????

[garbageman]

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens – Monday Night Football Forecast
Prediction Snapshot

Projected Final Score: Ravens 31 – Lions 24

Win Probability: Ravens 65–70% (range 60–75%)

Spread Projection: Ravens −5 (fair line)

Total Projection: ~55 points (lean Over vs. posted 53.5)

Fair Moneyline: Ravens −225 / Lions +185

Why the Model Leans Baltimore

Home / Primetime Edge: Ravens are historically strong at M&T Bank Stadium on Monday nights. Harbaugh-era Ravens have excelled in prime-time, especially at home.

Quarterback Differential: Lamar Jackson has been hyper-efficient through two weeks with improved pocket passing. Goff is playing well, but historically struggles a bit more outdoors and vs. pressure looks.

Injuries Matter: Baltimore is missing key defensive linemen, which could allow Detroit’s passing game to flourish. However, Detroit’s offensive line is also dinged up (Decker, Campbell questionable), which could neutralize that edge.

Explosive Play Balance: Detroit’s WRs (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams) are capable of stretching the field, but Baltimore has contained explosive plays well at home.

Series History: Baltimore is 4-0 at home vs. Detroit, 6-1 all-time. While not predictive by itself, it aligns with other structural advantages.

Key Matchups to Watch

Ravens Pass Rush vs. Lions O-Line (injured): If Baltimore can generate pressure without blitzing, Goff’s efficiency drops significantly.

Lions WRs vs. Ravens Secondary: Without Madubuike (DT) and Van Noy (LB), Baltimore may be softer underneath, giving Amon-Ra St. Brown volume upside.

Ravens Run Game vs. Lions Front Seven: Detroit’s run defense has been sturdy. If they bottle up the run, Lamar may need to throw more than usual.

Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have been top-10 in red-zone TD% early this year. Whichever defense bends less inside the 20 will tilt the game.

Player Prop Leans (Informational Only)

(Not betting advice — based purely on matchup analytics)

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR): Lean Over receptions (high-volume slot target; Ravens softer against slot production without LB depth).

Jared Goff (DET QB): Lean Over passing yards but Under pass TDs (volume likely, but red zone conversion risk vs. Ravens).

Lamar Jackson (BAL QB): Lean Over rushing yards (Detroit’s edges force scrambles, Lions’ man coverage leaves lanes).

Zay Flowers (BAL WR): Lean Over receiving yards (DET’s secondary can be attacked deep; Flowers has speed to exploit).

David Montgomery (DET RB): Lean Under rushing yards (Baltimore more vulnerable through the air than on the ground).

Final Word

Baltimore at home, in prime-time, with Lamar in rhythm, is a tough environment for Detroit. The Lions can score, but matchups point to Baltimore controlling key sequences. Expect a competitive, fairly high-scoring game — with the Ravens’ primetime dominance and QB edge pushing them over the top.

Forecast: Ravens 31 – Lions 24.

For informational and educational purposes only; not betting advice.

[garbageman]

3-4 Record. Obviously AI isnt any better at humans at this, however, i will keep tweaking the model to see if it improves. The problem is AI cannot account for the human aspect of sports, there is no algorithm for that.

WIN Browns +8.5 (probability 65%)
LOSS Buccaneers -6.5 (probability 66%)
LOSS Bengals +3 (probability 70%)
WIN Rams Eagles OVER 45.5 (probability 72%)
LOSS Cowboys Money line (probability 74%)
LOSS Chiefs Giants OVER 44.5 (probability 76%)
WIN Chargers -2.5 (probability 78%)

[garbageman]

Results (8 Wins 12 Losses).. I have some work to do on my models. Interesting note, I told the model its record for yesterday, here is its response: “College football is volatile — hidden injuries, weather shifts, and inconsistent mid-tier teams make projections swing wildly. The 8-12 record mainly reflects those unpredictable factors and the risk of forecasting every game rather than just the strongest matchups.”

Top Dog picks (3-5)
LOSS West Virginia
WIN Memphis
LOSS Miami Ohio
WIN Colorado St
LOSS Air force
LOSS Liberty
WIN Idaho
LOSS Sam Houston St

Top Favorite Picks (2-3)
LOSS Oregon
WIN Florida St
LOSS Virginia Tech
LOSS Louisville
WIN Oklahoma

Totals (3-4)
LOSS OVER TCU SMU
LOSS OVER UTAH TEXAS TECH
WIN OVER ARKANSAS MEMPHIS
WIN OVER MISSOURI SC
WIN OVER INDIANA ILLINOIS
LOSS UNDER RUTGERS IOWA
LOSS UNDER MICH NEBRASKA

[garbageman]

FYI – the AI is limited to what information it can find by opening websites on the internet. When it encounters dynamic websites where a human would have to make a series of choices (clicks) it cannot do that. That limitation should be resolved soon at the geometric evolution rate of AI. When I can program the AI to reference all the different statistics available on the web, the predictions should get more detailed and accurate.

Off to a 0-1 start with the UNDER IOWA RUTGERS going way over….

[garbageman]

i cant bet money on a rookie QB making his first start in 2 years on the road in chicago.

[garbageman]

First week blundering, this is the result of reduced pre-season. Teams are not sharp.

[garbageman]

Hope the plays get posted with enough time for us to get them in… 😁…. Thanks Tim for all you done

[garbageman]

anything on the 630 games? about to kick…

[garbageman]

Another year, lets get it goin Tim!

[garbageman]

straight cash homey

[Author]

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