[garbageman]

JAX ST & Over
UTEP & Under

Gridiron Score Lab – Tonight’s College Football Forecasts
Game Predicted Final Win % (±) Cover Prob vs. line (±) Total Prob (O/U) Fair Moneyline Fair Spread Confidence
Delaware @ Jacksonville St. Jacksonville St. 31 – 28 56% JAXST (±7%) JAXST +3: 60% (±8%) Over 57: 54% JAXST −127 JAXST −1.0 Medium
UTEP @ Sam Houston UTEP 24 – 20 59% UTEP (±7%) UTEP −2.5: 58% (±8%) Under 47.5: 56% UTEP −145 UTEP −3.0 Medium
Why the model leans this way (top drivers)

Delaware @ Jacksonville State

Run-game mismatch (JAXST O rush vs. DEL rush D): Jax State is massively ground-oriented (≈280 rush yds/g at 5.7 YPC), creating EPA/success-rate edges versus an average C-USA run defense; that profile travels even better at home.
Jacksonville State University Athletics

QB experience/variance: Delaware’s Nick Minicucci has been productive (1,300+ pass yds), but the Hens’ red-zone efficiency has been volatile; Jax State’s QB room (Creel/Wimsatt usage) adds designed-run explosiveness. That combo nudges game volatility upward and favors the home side in late downs.
ESPN.com
+1

Pace/Total & Weather: With both teams allowing 26–27 ppg range and clear, light-wind conditions (~76°F, 0% POP) in Jacksonville, offensive efficiency should translate; modest lean to the Over.
Jacksonville State University Athletics
+1

UTEP @ Sam Houston

Defense gap: UTEP’s defense is materially stronger (≈25 opp ppg; ~195 opp pass yds/g) than Sam Houston’s (≈39 opp ppg; ~278 opp pass yds/g). That’s the single biggest edge on the field.
UTEP Miners
+1

UTEP pass O vs. SHSU pass D: Even with Malachi Nelson’s turnover risk, UTEP’s passing efficiency projects above baseline against one of C-USA’s leakier secondaries—enough to sustain 3–4 scoring drives.
FOX Sports

Game state & Weather: Warm, light-wind night in Houston (~83°F, mostly clear). No weather drag; but both offenses have finishing issues, keeping our median Under by a few points.
ESPN.com
+1

Situational notes applied

Home-field advantage: Standard +1.8 to +2.2 points for Jax State and Sam Houston (venue familiarity; no timezone penalty).

Travel/body clock: All teams in Central/Eastern—no meaningful circadian adjustment.

Injuries/QB status: No “RED ALERT” (starting QB out/questionable) flags as of late afternoon; JSU’s recent QB shift toward Creel added designed-run value last week. If a late QB status changes, widen ranges by ~±6 pts and ~±10% on win prob.
Jacksonville State University Athletics

Weather: Light winds in both venues; no kick/passing downgrades.

[shamrock17]

Thanks GM!

[Author]

Posts