[garbageman]

Mariners @ Tigers — ALDS Game 3 deep dive
Confirmed starters & lineups

SEA: Logan Gilbert (RHP, 6–6, 3.44) — Mariners lineup confirmed.

DET: Jack Flaherty (RHP, 8–15, 4.64) — Tigers lineup confirmed.
RotoWire has both lineups and starting pitchers locked; odds composite shows SEA ~-135, total 8.0.
RotoWire

Recent form & context

Last 25 games: SEA 18–7; DET 9–16.

Home/road: Mariners 39–42 away; Tigers 46–35 at home.

Weather/park: Showery → cloudy, ~60°F with a left-to-right breeze; Comerica generally suppresses HR a bit — nudges toward an under-ish run environment.
Fantasy Index

Pitching matchups
Logan Gilbert (SEA)

2025 profile: 3.44 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 — elite K/BB this year.
FanGraphs Baseball

Vs. Tigers (career): 3.28 ERA, 34 K in 5 apps (1–2). Notably dominated at DET on 9/1/22 (6 IP, 0 R, 9 K).

Tigers batters vs Gilbert:

Riley Greene .417 (5-for-12), modest power so far.

Javier Báez .375 (3-for-8).

Dillon Dingler 2-for-3 with a double (small sample).

Several swing-and-miss spots: Andy Ibáñez .111 (9 AB), Parker Meadows 0-for-2.

Read: Gilbert’s K rate matches up well with a Tigers club that’s been cold over 25 games and has shown swing/miss pockets. Cooler temps/Comerica help his fly-ball profile.

Jack Flaherty (DET)

2025 profile: 4.64 ERA, 10.5 K/9; peripherals (FIP ~3.85) better than ERA.
FanGraphs Baseball

Vs. Mariners (career): 2–0, 4.22 ERA, 28 K in 4 apps.

Mariners batters vs Flaherty (career):

Eugenio Suárez: 6-for-25, but 3 HR (power threat).

Julio Rodríguez: 1-for-7, HR, 2 BB — patience + pop.

J.P. Crawford: .429/.500/.714 (7 AB).

Cal Raleigh: 1-for-7, but patient approach (BB).

Depth adds: Randy Arozarena (new to SEA) 3-for-8, 2 HR vs Flaherty historically. (Roster context via RotoWire.)

Read: Flaherty’s stuff still misses bats, but he can be homer-touched by RHB with lift (Suárez/J-Rod). If his fastball shape drifts, SEA’s top third punishes mistakes.

Series/state of play

Game 1: DET 3–2 in 11 (McKinstry GW hit; Carpenter HR).

Game 2: SEA 3–2 (Polanco 2 HR; J-Rod GW double).
Reuters
+1

Game 3 pregame odds: SEA slight road fave (around -135 ML; total 8).

Model leans (what’s driving it)

Inputs blended from: confirmed lineups & SPs (RotoWire), opponent history (ESPN/StatMuse), recent form (StatMuse), park/weather (Savant/Fantasy Index + forecast), market baselines (ESPN/Fox/Action/Covers).

Run environment: Slightly suppressed (weather/park).

K environment: Elevated (both SP K/9, DET swing issues last 25).

Edge on balls in play: SEA defense + top-order thump tilts marginally toward Mariners late.

Predictions
First 5 innings

SEA 2, DET 1

Gilbert Ks: 6–7 through 5–6 IP.

Flaherty Ks: 4–5 through ~5 IP.
Rationale: Gilbert’s K/BB and Tigers’ recent form give SEA a slight early lead; Flaherty trims damage but navigates traffic.

Full game

Final: Mariners 4, Tigers 2

Key swing: SEA breaks a 2–2 in the 7th–8th via top-order extra-base hit (Suárez/J-Rod/Crawford profiles vs Flaherty & a RHP reliever).

Bullpens: Slight nod to SEA based on series performance to date (Munoz closed G2 clean).
Reuters

Individual stat lines (estimates)

Logan Gilbert: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 1–2 R, 1 BB, 8 K. (Opponent history + K form.)
StatMuse
+1

Jack Flaherty: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 6 K. (K’s intact; one long ball risk.)
FanGraphs Baseball

SEA hitters:

Eugenio Suárez: XBH (HR or 2B) chance given prior success.
ESPN.com

Julio Rodríguez: 1–3, BB, 2 TB upside.
ESPN.com

J.P. Crawford: on-base engine (OBP vs Flaherty strong).
ESPN.com

DET hitters:

Riley Greene: 1–4 with a hard-hit (best history vs Gilbert).

Kerry Carpenter: 1–4; HR equity but whiffs possible.
ESPN.com

Notes & uncertainties

Lineups: RotoWire shows both confirmed; monitor any late scratches (there had been reporting on Josh Naylor’s availability, but RotoWire presently lists him starting). If Naylor sits, SEA offense loses a lefty thump and defensive alignment shifts (Suárez to 1B possibility).
RotoWire
+1

Umpire crew: not posted at lineup lock; a wide zone would further favor the under and pitchers.
RotoWire

[Timmy1961]

Trashman com.park is in top 10 hr. Friendly parks along with dod yanks rocks parks just doing this from memory

[Author]

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