[garbageman]

instructions to AI model – “give me your top 5 blowouts / lopsided scores of the day, do not use the betting lines in your analysis.” This is for fun only, lets see how the model does with these 5 plays.

Top 5 Blowout Candidates Today (model-driven, no spreads)

# Matchup Projected Score Margin Why It Projects as a Blowout Confidence Range

1 Vanderbilt @ Utah State Vanderbilt 41 – Utah State 17 +24 Vandy has been both efficient and balanced (offense + defense efficiency above FBS avg). Utah State’s defense ranks bottom-third in success rate allowed, esp. vs run. Depth and trench mismatch → sustained drives + worn-down defense.

2 Notre Dame vs Arkansas Notre Dame 37 – Arkansas 14 +23 ND defense is top-10 in Sagarin efficiency. Arkansas offense has struggled on standard downs and OL pass pro. ND’s offense efficient in red zone → scoring separation.

3 Tulane vs Tulsa Tulane 35 – Tulsa 10 +25 Tulane’s defense rates top-15 in EPA/play allowed. Tulsa’s offense is bottom-quarter in success rate + explosive plays. Tulane offense opportunistic → short fields. Tulane coming off a loss.

4 Navy vs Rice Navy 31 – Rice 7 +24 Navy defense strong vs run and time-control scheme. Rice has bottom-20 offense in EPA/play. Game script: Navy bleeds clock while Rice cannot sustain drives → possessions limited and lopsided. Option vs Option – possible low score.

5 Ohio State @ Washington Ohio State 38 – Washington 17 +21 OSU ranks top-5 overall in efficiency and defensive success rate. Washington’s offense mid-tier, defense below avg vs explosive plays. Talent + depth gap → OSU separation, esp. late.

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