[garbageman]

Alright gang, I made a lot of adjustments to the model, lets see how it goes.
Prediction here: NTexas 35 USF 33

Game: USF at North Texas — Friday, October 10, 2025, 6:30 p.m. CT, DATCU Stadium (FieldTurf, outdoor)

Weather (forecast): ~80°F at kickoff falling into the upper-60s; light winds ~0–5 mph; clear, no precip. Minimal weather impact.

1) Snapshot

– Base Strength (Sagarin-adj): USF ~#52 vs North Texas ~#61 → small neutral-field lean to USF (~+1), but close.
– Tempo & Field Position: Plays/game: USF 67.4 vs UNT 68.8 — both fast. Special teams summary below.

2) Matchup Edges

– Trenches (pass pro & rush disruption):
• UNT defense: 10 sacks in 5 gms (2.0/g); 30 TFL (6.0/g); offense has allowed ~1.0 sacks/g.
• USF defense: 9 sacks (1.8/g); 28 TFL (5.6/g); offense has allowed ~1.4 sacks/g.
Edge: slight North Texas.

– Explosiveness vs Prevention (proxies):
• USF offense: 6.62 ypp, rush 5.43 y/a, pass efficiency 146.2.
• UNT offense: 6.35 ypp, pass efficiency 156.5, 0 INT thrown; defense allowing 4.52 ypp.
Edge: slight North Texas (passing efficiency + ypp allowed; schedule caveat).

– Red Zone & 3rd/4th Down:
• USF RZ 93%, 3rd down 42.7%.
• UNT RZ 96.8%, 3rd down 48.3%.
Edge: North Texas.

– Special Teams:
• FG: USF 80% (8/10) vs UNT 83.3% (5/6).
• Punting: USF 44.7 vs UNT 41.2 net.
• Returns: USF 14.4 yds/PR (TD) vs UNT 6.3.
Edge: USF (punting/returns).

3) Human/Discipline Profile

– Turnovers:
• UNT O: 0 INT, 3 lost fumbles; D: 6 INT.
• USF O: 4 INT, 3 lost fumbles; D: 6 INT.
Advantage: North Texas (INT avoidance + similar takeaways).

– Penalties:
• UNT: 28 for 237 yds (~47.4/g).
• USF: 33 for 286 yds (~57.2/g).
Advantage: North Texas (cleaner).

– Late-Game/One-Score (descriptive):
• UNT close wins: 33–30 @ WMU, 45–38 @ Army.
• USF: 18–16 @ Florida (close win), others more lopsided.
Both have been tested; slight experiential lean to UNT.

4) Situational & Context

– Home/Road & Environment: True road for USF; expected big crowd in Denton; FieldTurf.
– Rest/Travel/Look-Ahead: Standard rest; USF long trip and one-hour time change; no major look-ahead flags.
– Weather: Clear, light wind — negligible adjustments.

5) Adjusted Projection (No Lines Used)

– Final Point Delta (model): North Texas by 1.9 (base small lean to USF; efficiency tilts to UNT; trenches −0.5 to USF; human/discipline −0.6 to USF; situational/home −1.8 to USF).
– Win Probabilities: USF 43% | North Texas 57%.
– Expected Score (median): North Texas 35 – USF 33.
– Range (25–75th percentile): North Texas 31–39 | USF 28–36.

Uncertainty Notes: UNT’s defensive rates may be inflated by schedule; USF’s slate (with quality wins and a top-tier loss) raises their ceiling. Weather is benign, so QB run game for USF and UNT’s downfield efficiency likely decide it. Monitor any late injury scratches at RB and along the defensive front for UNT.

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