[garbageman]

Made some significant adjustments to my AI model for todays games, lets see how it goes. Here are the top plays for today, I am only listing plays that are 65% or higher.

Browns +8.5 (probability 65%)
Buccaneers -6.5 (probability 66%)
Bengals +3 (probability 70%)
Rams Eagles OVER 45.5 (probability 72%)
Cowboys Money line (probability 74%)
Chiefs Giants OVER 44.5 (probability 76%)
Chargers -2.5 (probability 78%)

[garbageman]

3-4 Record. Obviously AI isnt any better at humans at this, however, i will keep tweaking the model to see if it improves. The problem is AI cannot account for the human aspect of sports, there is no algorithm for that.

WIN Browns +8.5 (probability 65%)
LOSS Buccaneers -6.5 (probability 66%)
LOSS Bengals +3 (probability 70%)
WIN Rams Eagles OVER 45.5 (probability 72%)
LOSS Cowboys Money line (probability 74%)
LOSS Chiefs Giants OVER 44.5 (probability 76%)
WIN Chargers -2.5 (probability 78%)

[garbageman]

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens – Monday Night Football Forecast
Prediction Snapshot

Projected Final Score: Ravens 31 – Lions 24

Win Probability: Ravens 65–70% (range 60–75%)

Spread Projection: Ravens −5 (fair line)

Total Projection: ~55 points (lean Over vs. posted 53.5)

Fair Moneyline: Ravens −225 / Lions +185

Why the Model Leans Baltimore

Home / Primetime Edge: Ravens are historically strong at M&T Bank Stadium on Monday nights. Harbaugh-era Ravens have excelled in prime-time, especially at home.

Quarterback Differential: Lamar Jackson has been hyper-efficient through two weeks with improved pocket passing. Goff is playing well, but historically struggles a bit more outdoors and vs. pressure looks.

Injuries Matter: Baltimore is missing key defensive linemen, which could allow Detroit’s passing game to flourish. However, Detroit’s offensive line is also dinged up (Decker, Campbell questionable), which could neutralize that edge.

Explosive Play Balance: Detroit’s WRs (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams) are capable of stretching the field, but Baltimore has contained explosive plays well at home.

Series History: Baltimore is 4-0 at home vs. Detroit, 6-1 all-time. While not predictive by itself, it aligns with other structural advantages.

Key Matchups to Watch

Ravens Pass Rush vs. Lions O-Line (injured): If Baltimore can generate pressure without blitzing, Goff’s efficiency drops significantly.

Lions WRs vs. Ravens Secondary: Without Madubuike (DT) and Van Noy (LB), Baltimore may be softer underneath, giving Amon-Ra St. Brown volume upside.

Ravens Run Game vs. Lions Front Seven: Detroit’s run defense has been sturdy. If they bottle up the run, Lamar may need to throw more than usual.

Red Zone Efficiency: Both teams have been top-10 in red-zone TD% early this year. Whichever defense bends less inside the 20 will tilt the game.

Player Prop Leans (Informational Only)

(Not betting advice — based purely on matchup analytics)

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR): Lean Over receptions (high-volume slot target; Ravens softer against slot production without LB depth).

Jared Goff (DET QB): Lean Over passing yards but Under pass TDs (volume likely, but red zone conversion risk vs. Ravens).

Lamar Jackson (BAL QB): Lean Over rushing yards (Detroit’s edges force scrambles, Lions’ man coverage leaves lanes).

Zay Flowers (BAL WR): Lean Over receiving yards (DET’s secondary can be attacked deep; Flowers has speed to exploit).

David Montgomery (DET RB): Lean Under rushing yards (Baltimore more vulnerable through the air than on the ground).

Final Word

Baltimore at home, in prime-time, with Lamar in rhythm, is a tough environment for Detroit. The Lions can score, but matchups point to Baltimore controlling key sequences. Expect a competitive, fairly high-scoring game — with the Ravens’ primetime dominance and QB edge pushing them over the top.

Forecast: Ravens 31 – Lions 24.

For informational and educational purposes only; not betting advice.

[Author]

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