[garbageman]

The model really likes Washington tonight. Given the line of Wash -10, there is a 18 point line value here. Model prediction score:
Washington 49 – Rutgers 21
Tail at your own risk!

Game: Rutgers at Washington — Fri, Oct 10, 2025, 6:00 PM PT, Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium (outdoor, turf)

Weather (forecast): 58–55°F during the game; light S/SW wind ~4–8 mph; small shower chance increases late night. Impact: minimal for passing/kicking. Sources: NWS Seattle point forecast & city forecast; supplemental hourly.
National Weather Service
+2
Atmospheric and Climate Science
+2

Kick/TV: 6:00 PM PT (9:00 PM ET) on FS1.
University of Washington Athletics
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Venue notes: Husky Stadium, capacity ~70k, open-air synthetic turf.
University of Washington Athletics
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1) Snapshot

– Base Strength (Sagarin-adj proxy): Sagarin’s live table has been spotty today, so I anchored the baseline on results/efficiency and then overlaid matchup factors below. Washington’s season profile: 39.4 ppg on 6.70 ypp allowed 19.8 ppg on 4.60 ypp. Rutgers: 39.0 ppg on 5.96 ypp, allowed 25.4 ppg on 6.37 ypp. Baseline lean UW +6 to +7 before overlays.
CFB Stats
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– Tempo & Field Position proxies: Offense plays/gm — Rutgers 72.8 (364/5), Washington 66.6 (333/5). Expect ~139 total plays; UW punts rarely (7 total in 5 gms; 38.7 gross).
CFB Stats
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CFB Stats
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2) Matchup Edges

Trenches (pass pro / rush)

Sacks allowed (UW O): 15 in 5 gms (3.0/g; bottom-tier nationally this year). Sacks generated (UW D): 9 in 5 (1.8/g). Rutgers D sacks: 8 in 5 (1.6/g). Edge here is nuanced: Rutgers can get some pressure, but UW’s run front (2.93 ypc allowed) is stout.
CFB Stats
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CFB Stats
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CFB Stats
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Run game: UW 4.88 ypc (956 rush yds, 16 TD); Rutgers rush O 3.58 ypc; Rutgers rush D allowing 4.71 ypc. Edge UW at the line of scrimmage.
CFB Stats
+1

Explosiveness & Efficiency (pass/run proxies)

Passing efficiency: UW O rating 168.3, 1276 pass yds, only 1 INT; Rutgers D pass rating allowed 143.0 on 6 TD. Rutgers O rating 159.3 meets UW D rating allowed 119.1. Edge UW both ways.
CFB Stats
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Yards/play: UW 6.70 vs opp 4.60; Rutgers 5.96 vs opp 6.37. Edge UW.
CFB Stats
+1

Money downs & Finishing

3rd down: UW O 56.9% vs opp 43.1%; Rutgers O 49.2% vs opp 38.3% — both strong, but UW’s offense is elite here.
CFB Stats
+1

Red zone: UW O 95.5% (21/22); Rutgers O 85.7% (24/28). UW D 94.1% allowed; Rutgers D 94.7% allowed. Slight edge to UW offense to finish more drives.
CFB Stats
+1

Special Teams

FG: UW 100% (5/5) vs Rutgers 55.6% (5/9).

Punt/returns: UW PR 24.2 y/ret with a TD; Rutgers PR 18.2 y/ret with 3 TD (on 5 returns). Net: UW with more reliable FG, Rutgers with a dangerous PR spike in small sample; overall lean UW due to kicking reliability.
CFB Stats
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3) Human/Discipline Profile

Turnovers: UW +5 total (7 gained, 2 lost) = +1.0/g; Rutgers +1 (3 gained, 2 lost) = +0.2/g. Edge UW.
CFB Stats
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Penalties: UW 29 for 262 yds (≈52.4 yds/g); Rutgers 23 for 185 (≈37.0 yds/g). Slight discipline edge Rutgers on flags, but turnover edge to UW outweighs.
CFB Stats
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Late-game/1-score context: UW rallied from 20–0 down to win at Maryland last week; Rutgers dropped back-to-back late leads in B1G play. Descriptive edge UW execution late.
CBS Sports

4) Situational & Context

Home/Travel: UW at home (Husky Stadium; loud, long trip for Rutgers; 2 time zones). Small HFA boost to UW.
University of Washington Athletics

Personnel notes (public reports): UW QB Demond Williams Jr. good to go per coach Jedd Fisch (hand cramp last week). Rutgers has dealt with LT injuries this season. (Availability always fluid—check pregame).
On3
+1

Weather: Light wind, cool, small/shifting shower chances — no material downgrade to either passing game.
National Weather Service
+1

5) Adjusted Projection (No Lines Used)

Step 1 — Base Rating Delta (proxy): UW +6.5 (score/ypp composite).
CFB Stats
+1

Step 2 — Efficiency Overlay: Pass/rush efficiency & money downs → +2.0 UW.
CFB Stats

Step 3 — Matchup Edges: Trenches (run D + pass eff) + special teams (FG) → +2.8 UW (Rutgers PR threat noted).
CFB Stats
+2
CFB Stats
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Step 4 — Human/Discipline: TO margin & penalties bounded adjuster → +0.6 UW.
CFB Stats
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Step 5 — Situational/Weather: HFA/travel +1.0; weather ~0.
→ Final Point Delta (model): UW by ~11.4**.**

Win Probabilities (logistic, s=6.5): Washington 85.3% | Rutgers 14.7%.
Expected Score (median): Washington 49 – Rutgers 21.
Range (25–75th percentile): Washington 40–57 | Rutgers 17–24.
(Derived from pace × efficiency, then aligned to the modeled delta; see code block used to compute.)

Qualitative game script: Expect UW to lean on Jonah Coleman and QB Demond Williams Jr. for a balanced, efficient attack; Rutgers’ offense (accurate, low-INT) can move the ball, but sustaining drives vs UW’s 4.60 ypp defense and matching 3rd-down/red-zone efficiency is the challenge. If Rutgers’ DL converts pressures into negative plays and they pop a hidden-yardage win on returns, they keep it scrappy; otherwise UW’s down-to-down edge builds separation.
CFB Stats
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Uncertainty flags: UW OL has allowed 15 sacks in 5 gms; if Rutgers’ rush (8 sacks in 5) wins more often than baseline, UW scoring efficiency dips. Any late rain band wouldn’t be severe but could nudge pass-exp/FG slightly.
CFB Stats
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CFB Stats
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Encountered & Ignored (betting/consensus content)

Odds/picks pages (NY Post, FOX Sports odds modules, PrizePicks, Yahoo betting articles) were seen and ignored; only factual schedule/injury bits from team/beat sources were used.
Yahoo Sports
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New York Post
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FOX Sports
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Citations (key)

Official schedules / game info: Washington & Rutgers sites.
University of Washington Athletics
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Team stat profiles (scoring, ypp, 3rd/4th, RZ, ST, penalties, plays): cfbstats (UW & Rutgers).
CFB Stats
+1

Sacks (teams) & sacks allowed leaders: cfbstats.
CFB Stats
+2
CFB Stats
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Turnover margin splits: cfbstats.
CFB Stats
+1

Weather: NWS Seattle point & city forecasts; supplemental hourly.
National Weather Service
+2
Atmospheric and Climate Science
+2

Stadium details: UW facilities page; Wikipedia (surface/overview).
University of Washington Athletics
+1

Bottom line: Data-only model (no lines) makes it Washington ~85% with a median 49–21 type game. Rutgers’ best path: win on special teams/hidden yardage, finish TDs in the RZ, and turn UW’s pass-pro leaks into drive-killers.

[garbageman]

alright, the 5 star play hit! notice the trend for Washington to start slow. They are a second half team. Watch for a shoulder issue next week with the QB Williams. Washington should have scored 50 on this bad Rutgers D.

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