bimmercandoPast ITPB – College Bowls
INDIANA 27-17 OVER MIAMI
Phil’s Forecast:
These two schools last met back in 1964 and 1966 when they split two meetings. Indiana is playing for their first
CFB National Title. Curt Cignetti coached in the FCS National Title game in 2019 at James Madison but lost to North
Dakota St. Miami has won 5 National Titles but the last was back in ‘01 when they crushed Nebraska. This is
Indiana’s first game vs the ACC since a 21-14 loss to Louisville in ’23. Miami beat Ohio St, 24-14, in the quarterfinal
CFP round to snap a 4-game losing streak to Big Ten schools. We’ve heard that the “U” was back countless times
over the last 20 years, only for Miami to fall short each time. This year appeared to be more of the same. They
beat Notre Dame in the opener but losses to Louisville and SMU as a DD favorite kept them from the ACC Title
game. The win over ND was enough to land the hotly contested at-large CFP bid. Miami’s D held Texas A&M to 3
points and Ohio St to 14 points in their first 2 playoff games. QB Carson Beck looked like the projected #1 draft
pick he was once considered vs Ole Miss in the Semifinals, throwing for 268 yds and 2 td’s and rushing for the
clinching td in a 31-27 win. RB Mark Fletcher has become an underrated workhorse in the playoffs, rushing for 395
yards on 58 carries. Beck’s #1 target is true frosh phenom Malachi Toney (1089, 11.0). The Francis Mauigoa-led O-
line has allowed just 19 sacks in 15 games. Defense has been the ‘Canes calling card, especially during the playoff
run. They allow just 293 ypg and they have 47 sacks led by DE’s Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. The D holds
foes 117 ypg below their avg (#4 FBS) and allow just 6.3 yds per pass attempt with a 13-16 ratio. Indiana has
passed every test heading into this game. They went 12-0 in the regular season with only 3 close wins over
Oregon, Iowa, and Penn St. The Hoosiers knocked off Ohio St for their first Big 10 Title then crushed Alabama 38-3
in the quarterfinals. Last week’s rematch with the Ducks was a 56-22 rout thanks to +3 TO’s. Indiana has a big
edge on offense, especially at the skill positions. QB Fernando Mendoza has a 41-6 ratio, and he’s thrown just 5
incompletions since winning the Heisman. He has 2 terrific backs in Roman Hemby (1060, 5.0) and Kaelon Black
(961, 5.7) and 3 great options in the receiving corps. Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper are All-Big Ten WR’s while
Charlie Becker has had 3 100-yd games since Sarratt was hobbled in early November. The Hoosier O-line has
paved the way for the FBS’ #12 run game (218, 5.3). The Indiana D gives up just 11 ppg and 261 ypg. They allow a
Big Ten low 2.9 ypc and have a 9-18 ratio in pass defense! Their 29 takeaways rank #3 in the FBS and they’re
holding opp 107 ypg below their avg (#7 FBS). While Miami has the bigger names, Indiana’s relatively no-name
front 7 nearly neutralizes the Canes’ edge by allowing 75 rush ypg with 45 sacks. My computer has Indiana winning
the national championship 27-17. Hoosiers have the better ST’s (#15 vs #61) while Miami has played the tougher
schedule (#11 vs #25). Miami has faced 7 teams this year that were ranked at kickoff (7-0 SU & ATS). Indiana has
faced 5 teams this ssn ranked at kickoff (5-0 SU & ATS). Miami has a rare home field edge playing this game in
Miami. However, don’t be shocked if Indiana has just as many fans at Hard Rock Stadium. IU has the largest living
alumni base in the country, and they packed Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta last week! Mendoza will neutralize
Miami’s talented D-line by getting the ball out quickly, and the Hoosiers’ chaotic D will cause problems for Beck.
Miami has had a magical playoff run, but Cignetti & Indiana have been dominant in all 3 phases. My computer has
been so good this year so I’ll lean on it one final time and call for the Hoosiers to win the national title by DD’s.
INDIANA 27 MIAMI 17