bimmercandoMarc Lawrence NFL 5* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR 33-0
LA Chargers + 3 1/2 over the New England Patriots
ML’s write up in Playbook,
La Chargers over NE by 2
“SUNDAY – JANUARY 11 8:15 PM ET – NBC
The Chargers rotated through 25 different five-man offensive line
combinations over 17 games this season. As a result, QB Justin Herbert
took 129 quarterback hits this year, the second-highest single-season
total. “He has to be the most … mentally tough dude of all time,” Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack said. Additionally, Herbert was pressured on 42.8 percent of his 615 drop-backs, the highest rate in the league, while being sacked 54 times. With that, two words best describe Herbert: elite and toughness. The same two words are often used in discussions about Chargers’ head coach Jim Harbaugh, who brings a 61-41-5 all-time ATS record in his NFL career into this game, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points following consecutive losses. On the other side of the field is the “most improved team” in the league this season, the Patriots.
They improved from 4-13 (.235 winning percentage) in 2024 to 14-3 (.824) in 2025, an increase of +10 wins. This sets the stage for today’s game, as the Well-Oiled Machine notes that NFL playoff teams that won 4 or fewer games last season are just 6-10 SU and 3-13 ATS as favorites in their first postseason since 1996. That’s not promising news when facing one of the NFL’s stingiest units (top-10 in points/yards allowed, fewest 20+ yard passes allowed), one that did not allow more than 20 points in each of its final six games of the season.
( Has me scared with NE. I’m going to hide behind a Teaser here. )