bimmercandoWayne Root
Millionaire – Baltimore -6
Reserve – Minnesota +1
Pinnacle – Atlanta +6′
Gold Standard – Green Bay -6′ (NFL GOM)
Chairman – Kansas City -4
King Creole
3* GOW RAMS o 48
4* as above?
Feist
Steelers
Falcons
Bengals
Marc lawrence
3 * plays
Bengals
Steelers
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Bryan Power
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5%
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[td][NFL] (141) Cincinnati Bengals at (142) Buffalo Bills
Time: 1:00 PM EST[/td][td]Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-108)[/td]
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[td]Analysis:
5% Buffalo (1:00 ET): This number is WAY too low. Yes, I did say last week that Cincinnati taking money against Baltimore was an overreaction to Joe Burrow coming back. And the Bengals ended up winning that game, 32-14 as a 7.5-point underdog. But that was a situation where the Ravens decided to hand the game away with five turnovers. One of those was a fumble through the end zone on what would have otherwise been a TD that put Baltimore up 14-6. It completely changed the game. A Lamar Jackson red zone INT early in the 4Q sealed the outcome. Nevertheless, I still feel Cincy is a very bad football team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
One could try to argue that a lot of the Bengals’ stats are misleading due to being without Burrow for the vast majority of the season. But here’s what I’ll argue. Even though the Bengals won last week, there is no way Buffalo should be laying fewer points than Baltimore. This is a Bills team that is 8-4 SU and entered the week with a top five point differential in the league. They also don’t lose at home very often. Just four times during the regular season, in fact, since the start of the 2022 season. Last week, Josh Allen and company easily got by the Steelers, 26-7 as three-point favorites. The offense dominated time of possession by running the ball straight down the opposition’s throat. The defense allowed just 166 total yards.
This will definitely be a tougher matchup for the Bills defense as Cincy is set to get back WR Tee Higgins from a concussion. However, it should also be an easier matchup for Allen and the offense. The Bengals went into last week ranked dead last in the league in several key defensive categories, including yards per play, yards per game, points per game and EPA allowed. The Bills’ offense ranks #1 in the league in YPP at home (6.5), not to mention TOP and plays per drive. I think we see a lot of the same success running the ball that we saw last week, especially if the Bengals are without DE Trey Hendrickson. I also expect Allen to start taking better care of the football. Teams with losing records don’t often pull B2B upsets, on the road no less, so I am laying the points. 5% Buffalo (Play to -7)[/td]
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