Free Picks for Wednesday, October 11th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
FLAMES VS. KINGS
PLAY: KINGS -140
Calgary continues it SoCal trip after finally beating the Ducks on Monday. That ended the longest losing streak in history at 0-27 for the Flames at Anaheim. It was a very big deal for this team. They actually set up a voodoo shrine in the locker room to help them out, using the old schtick from the movie “Major League” and there was quite the celebration following the victory. You can never assume letdowns but there’s a chance Calgary could be a bit stale tonight.
The Kings are an energized team right now. The coaching change has breathed life into LA after their dull ’16-17 campaign. Jonathan Quick is back in good health and is off to a tremendous start. I think the Kings are a go with team and I will take them get to 3-0 with a win tonight.
Joey Juice
When these 2 teams play, its almost always under. The pressure will cement that tonight. Don't tell me about game 2, that game was a stone-cold under until the 8th inning when 5 runs crossed.
When we look inside the numbers we see Under with a big advantage, Under is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 road games vs. a winning team, 14-4-4 last 22 when Nationals play a winning home team.
The Under is also 18-6-2 last 26 on road when Nationals face a righty pitcher.
With the Cubs, Under is 5-1 last 6 playoff games, under has gone 9-3 last 12 vs winning team, and under has gone 5-2 the last 7 "Game Four" scenarios.
Free Pick is under.
2* WASHINGTON-CUBS UNDER
Tommy Brunson
Low total, but it's hard looking at the statistics to make a compelling enough case to side with the Over, as South Alabama comes into this game having played each of their last 4 games Under the posted price.
On the other side of the line, the Trojans of Troy have played ALL 5 of their contests this season Under the total.
A look at the series numbers the past 5 years these teams have met show the Under standing at 3-1-1. That push came last season when Troy rallied for 15 points in the final quarter to take a 28-21 decision on the Jags home turf and push the closing price of 49-points.
I think based on the track record this season for both schools, neither will get out of the 20's, and while this total is low, I still say the Under may be a bit of a sweat, but it is the way to go on Wednesday night.
South Alabama-Troy Under the total.
2* SOUTH ALABAMA-TROY UNDER
Joey Juice
Let's face it , this South Alabama team has had a really rough time trying to score vs FBS teams this season.
The last 4 South Alabama games all went under. To make matters worse, Troy has an extremely strong defensive unit and we all saw that against LSU. The last 5 times this Troy team covered a game, they followed it with an under.
This game is under.
2* SOUTH ALABAMA-TROY UNDER
Brandon Lee
Nationals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -156
I've backed the Cubs in all 3 games of this series and will not back down here in Game 4, even after having the game rained out on Tuesday and pushed back to Wednesday. Chicago needs a win to close out the series and move on to the NLCS against the Dodgers. The Cubs have won games where Scherzer and Strasburg have been nearly unhittable, thanks to clutch hitting and some exceptional starting pitching of their own. The Cubs will send out Jake Arrieta, who posted a 2.90 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. He's well rested here and there's few guys I would rather have on the mound in a big time game like this. On the flip side, Washington's season falls in the hands of Tanner Roark, who I think could struggle with the pressure of knowing he has to be special for the Nationals to play another day. He was just 13-11 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.334 WHIP in 30 starts and this Chicago offense is ready to explode.
Scott Spreitzer
Nationals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -158
Jake Arrieta's hamstring issues seem behind him according to reports and he's back home where the righthander dominated all season. Arrieta will face a struggling lineup. We mentioned in our game one preview that the Nationals' offense fell off over the final month of the season, ranked 26th, 25th, 26th, and 24th, in team batting average, OBP, OPS, and runs scored, respectively. They're an even worse 11 of 91, (.121 team batting average) in the postseason. Bryce Harper finished the regular season just 3 of 18 after coming back from injury. He's yet to find his groove, now 5 for his last 30, including just 2 hits in 12 at-bats in the postseason. His lack of production certainly hamstrings the already struggling Nats' lineup. Tanner Roark is slated for the Nats today. Roark hasn't pitched since October 1 and sports a 4.67 ERA in 32 appearances this season. The righthander has allowed 17 earned runs in his last six appearances, spanning 31 2/3 IP, for a 4.83 ERA. The Cubs enter on a 25-5 run against righthanded starters and they're 17-5 in their last 22 games, overall.
Cappers Club
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Under 7½
The Yankees and Indians face off on Wednesday night in game five, and with so much pressure on this game, the under has good value.
On the mound for the Indians is Corey Kluber who struggled in his only start in this series, but he doesn't usually have bad starts two game in a row.
Most of the season he has dynamite. He comes into this game with an 18-4 record and an ERA of 2.49.
I think he will shut down the Yankees bats early, and that will make the doubt creep in the rest of the game.
For the Indians their bats struggled in New York and I think that will continue in this game. The Yankees will have everyone available in their bullpen for a couple innings and that will hurt their chances of putting up a lot of run.
Ben Burns
Penguins vs. Capitals
Play: Under 6
While the final games of 2016 had an O/U line of five, ALL nine 2017 meetings between the Capitals and Penguins had O/U lines of 5.5. This evening, we're working with a 'total' of six. I believe that generous number is providing us with some value. Four of the last five meetings have finished with six or fewer combined goals, three of those finishing with less than six. The most recent game? A 2-0 Pittsburgh win in Game 7 here last May. That loss still stings for the Caps, particularly having to watch the Pens just visit the White House. With the Pens off a shutout win in their last game, don't be surprised if this one also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting.
Jack Jones
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Yankees +1½
I'm going to take a rare dog on the run line here in the Yankees at Indians ALDS Game 5. This is expected to be a low-scoring game with a total of just 7.5. Runs will be at a premium, and there's a good chance that this game is decided by a single run either way.
Corey Kluber was roughed up for 6 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in Game 2 of this series. He likely won't struggle that bad again, but it's certainly a concern moving forward for Indians backers. Kluber is clearly hittable.
I think Joe Girardi pulled CC Sabathia a little early in that game as he was cruising along giving up only 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings with just 77 pitches. The Yankees' bullpen gave away the lead. Sabathia has posted a 3.19 ERA in 15 road starts this season while being one of the most underrated starters in baseball.
The Yankees have all the momentum here after winning both their home games when facing elimination. That shows a lot of guts, and don't be surprised if they win this game either at a big dog price, but we'll take them on the run line for some insurance here.
Jim Feist
New Jersey at Toronto
Pick: Toronto -1.5
Toronto is off to a perfect 3-0 start and scoring goals at will. They did have a tough contest last time out, trailing the entire game to Chicago before evening the game at 3-3 and then winning it in OT, 4-3. They host the New Jersey Devils here on Wednesday and I'm looking at the OVER. New Jersey is also perfect on the season at 2-0 and have scored 10 goals in their two games. I like hot teams and no one is hotter out the gate then Toronto. Price is very steep with Leafs, so if you can lay the 1.5 goals, that's the play.
Larry Wallace
Nationals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -150
Take the Cubs in this match-up against the Nationals. Arrieta went 5-2 this year at home with a 2.90 ERA. Roark had a 4.26 ERA while pitching on the road and a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games. Look for Rizzo and Bryant to hold the fort down for the Cubs today. Also, if the Cubs can get to Wade Davis he is perfect in saves in the post season.
Micah Roberts
Yankees at Indians
Play: Under 7.5
Okay, here we go again with this match-up. We saw it in Game 1 and Corey Kluber definitely wasn't himself allowing six runs in 2.2 innings. C.C. Sabathia pitched well but the Indians came storming back against the relievers. I think we get back to the pitchers dominating here, especially a fresh Kluber.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Colorado
Pick: Boston -120
Immediate revenge spot here for the Bruins, who lost at home Monday afternoon to the Avs, 4-0 as -200 ML favorites. Strangely, they are now just 1-12 their L13 home games against Colorado. But even though the Avalanche have already posted two wins this year as big ML dogs (won opener over the Rangers at +175), I'm not buying this start from them. This was the worst team in the league - by a mile - a year ago and we've got some great value to pounce on here w/ the road team.
Boston led the league in shot per game differential last season, which I happen to believe is a key stat. Speaking of stats, none of them were good last year for the Avs. They ranked last in goals scored and allowed, putting them at a differential of -112, which was more than double all but three other teams. In fact, no other team was outscored by more than 63 goals last season. Only four teams were outscored by more than 40. Obviously then, it should come as no shock that the Avs finished w/ 21 fewer points than the next worse team (Vancouver).
Monday's game was a stunner for sure and the final result made no sense to me considering Colorado was held to only 23 shots on goal. (Final goal was an empty-netter). I know Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask was prone to the occasional poor performance at home last year, but I expect him to bounce back here. Remember that the Avs started 3-1 last year before losing 59 of their last 78 games!
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +182 over TORONTO
The Maple Leafs were projected to be really good this season. They came in with high expectations and after three games and a 3-0 record their stock is through the roof. The Maple Leafs have defeated Winnipeg, N.Y. Rangers and Chicago and have scored 19 times in those three games. Toronto’s offense is scary but they are not going to continue to score at this pace and there are some danger signs. The Maple leafs have taken 17 minor penalties over three games. That’s playing with fire. Frederick Andersen has been shaky on more than a few goals and was the main reason the Leafs nearly lost to Chicago. Toronto had a 5-1 lead over the Rangers but allowed New York to tie it 5-5 at one poiint. The Leafs were also dominated by Winnipeg in the first period of that game. Toronto’s defense is still not strong enough to be priced in this range against a team that is playing so well. We take nothing away from the Maple Leafs, as they truly are a highly skilled group that is not only dangerous, speedy and talented, but they are a threat to outscore every opponent they face this year. However, we’re all about playing value and with the media and fans slobbering all over the Maple Leafs, they have not been this overpriced over overhyped since gambling was illegal everywhere but Las Vegas.
Winning is contagious and the mere fact that the Devils are 2-0 and have scored 10 goals of their own makes them worth getting behind. Also throw in the outstanding goaltending of Mathieu Schneider and the Devils appeal gets even greater, but it’s not just that. The Devils opened their season with a win thanks to a three-point night from rookie defenseman Will Butcher. On Monday, the Devils roasted the Buffalo Sabres in a 6-2 beat down on the strength of rookie forward Jesper Bratt and newcomer Marcus Johansson. The pair of new additions for New Jersey totaled four goals and two assists between the two of them, marking yet another statement game from the Devils' offseason acquisitions. The #1 overall pick Nico Hischier set up a gorgeous goal in that victory over Buffalo but because the Devils have been so stale for so long, the market doesn’t believe they’re for real. Two games do not make a season but the Devils are a dangerous squad taking back an overlay inflated price here in a game they can win. The Devils are stale no more.
Calgary +127 over LOS ANGELES
The Kings stock is up after a quick 2-0 start but this 2-0 start is not like New Jersey’s for instance. L.A. beat Philadelphia 2-0 to open their season but they were the second best team on the ice for most of that game. They had a much better performance against the Sharks in their second game but the Sharks are 0-2 and starting to look older and slower. The real story of L.A.’s first two wins has been the play of Jonathan Quick and his league leading .983 save percentage. Any goaltender can get hot for a few games but Quick will come crashing down to earth real soon or just go back to being the ordinary goaltender he’s always been, save for one full season. Truth be told, L.A. didn’t get any better this season and while they have a good work ethic and some upper-tier talent, every team has upper tier talent these days. Los Angeles is a fringe playoff team at best and will be worth fading when they’re favored at home like they are here.
After a 3-0 opening night loss in Edmonton, the Flames have responded with back-to-back wins over Winnipeg and Anaheim while outscoring that pair 8-3. After failing to solve their persistent issues in goal with Brian Elliott last season, the Flames brought in Mike Smith from the Arizona Coyotes and in just three games, Smith has brought stability to the position. One cannot overstate the importance or positive impact that has on the entire team. The Flames also bolstered their defensive core this summer by adding Travis Hamonic in a trade with the New York Islanders. It’s a deal that will ensure that the Flames have a pairing that will rival the No. 1 option of most teams on the ice in just about every high-leverage situation. Calgary also has far more talent up front than the Kings also, as they bring an imposing and balanced three-line attack. Calgary beat L.A. three out of five times last year but this year the Flames have the confidence that comes with playing in front of a reliable goalie. Calgary is the better team taking back a price here.