Last Updated on January 22, 2026 4:51 pm by admin_001
What Is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline is betting a team to win the game outright. Favorites have negative prices (e.g., -150); underdogs have positive prices (e.g., +130). Payouts scale with price: the bigger the favorite, the lower the return; the bigger the dog, the higher the return.
Moneyline Example
Price -150: Risk $150 to win $100 (return $250). Price +130: Risk $100 to win $130 (return $230). Use the moneyline when you care only about the winner.
What Is a Point Spread?
The spread handicaps the favorite by points and gives the underdog the same head start. You’re betting the margin of victory. Common prices are near -110 on each side, though they can vary.
Spread Example
If Team A is -3.5, they must win by 4+ to cover. If Team B is +3.5, they cash if they win or lose by 3 or fewer. Around key numbers (e.g., NFL 3 and 7), half-points matter.
What Is a Total (Over/Under)?
The total is the combined points/runs/goals scored. You bet Over or Under a number set by the book. Totals are sensitive to pace, efficiency, injuries, weather, and goalie/pitcher news.
Total Example
Over/Under 44.5 in football: Over wins at 45+ points; Under wins at 44 or fewer. In baseball, a half-run (e.g., 8.5 vs 8) is often the difference between a win and a push.
Moneyline vs Spread vs Totals: When to Use Each
- Choose Moneyline when you like a dog to win outright, or the spread is near zero and juice is reasonable.
- Choose Spread when you have an edge on margin (mismatch, matchup, pace) or want points with a live underdog.
- Choose Totals when your edge is game environment (tempo, weather, pitchers/goalies, injuries)—not a specific side.
How Payouts & Break-Even Work
- -110 ≈ 52.38% break-even.
- -105 ≈ 51.22% break-even.
- +100 = 50.00% break-even.
Lower juice helps long-term ROI. See Vig and Juice Explained and How to Shop Betting Lines.
Practical Examples (Across Sports)
NFL
Spread vs Moneyline: +3.5 (-115) may be better than +3 (-105) due to the key number 3. If you think the dog can win outright and price is juicy, consider ML instead.
NBA
Totals: News and pace move numbers fast. A 1-point upgrade (Under 233.5 vs 232.5) can be worth more than five cents of juice depending on projections.
MLB
Moneyline vs Total: Wind out and a tired bullpen might push you to Over instead of a side. In MLB, small price differences (e.g., -112 vs -118) compound over a season.
Pros & Cons
Moneyline
- Pros: Simple; no concern for margin; great for live dogs.
- Cons: Big favorites = poor price; variance can sting dogs late.
Spread
- Pros: Capture margin edges; key numbers can be leveraged.
- Cons: Hook pain (e.g., lose at -3.5 when team wins by 3); price can drift to -115/-120.
Totals
- Pros: Profit from game environment; less tied to picking winners.
- Cons: Highly news/weather sensitive; half-points matter.
Common Mistakes
- Ignoring number vs price: +3.5 (-115) can be better than +3 (-105); Under 44.5 (-110) vs 45 (-118) depends on sport and keys.
- Betting the first line you see: Always shop 3–5 books.
- Confusing tickets with dollars: Use public splits as context, not a system. See Public Betting Percentages.
FAQs: Moneyline vs Spread vs Totals
Which is best for beginners? Moneyline is simplest. Spreads and totals require more sensitivity to numbers and news.
Do half-points really matter? Yes—especially near key numbers in football or with lower totals in hoops/baseball.
Should I parlay these markets? Parlays raise variance and hold. Keep stakes small if used for entertainment.
Related Guides
- How to Read Betting Odds
- Vig and Juice Explained
- How to Shop Betting Lines
- Closing Line Value (CLV) & Line Movement
- Bankroll Management
Responsible Gaming
If you think you might have a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling has resources and can help.