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How to Shop Betting Lines | Number vs Price

How to shop betting lines comes down to one rule: always weigh the number (spread/total/line) against the price (odds). This guide shows a simple workflow to compare -2.5 vs -3, -110 vs -105, totals at 2.25/2.5/2.75, and when to pivot to alt lines or team totals. For a neutral primer on basic concepts, see Wikipedia: Sports betting.

Number vs Price: The Core Trade-off

  • Number: Spread/total itself (e.g., -2.5, 47.5). Key numbers matter (football 3/7; hoops 1–3 possession bands; soccer quarter-goals).
  • Price: The vig (e.g., -110, -105, +100). Lower vig improves long-run ROI, but a worse number can erase the gain.
  • Decision rule: If the better number saves more win probability than the extra vig costs, take the number. Otherwise, take the cheaper price.

Quick EV Intuition (No Calculator Needed)

  • Hook around key numbers: In football, the 3-point hook (±0.5 around 3) is usually worth more than ~5 cents of vig; around 7, often ~8–10 cents (context dependent).
  • Totals bands: In hoops/football, clustered outcomes near market medians magnify half-points; in baseball, 7/8/9; in soccer, quarter-lines split stakes.
  • Moneylines vs spreads: Short favorites: if you project a low-scoring game, ML may outperform small spreads; in higher-variance spots, take points.

Quarter-Lines & Alt Lines

  • Soccer totals (2.25, 2.75) & Asian Handicap: Stakes split (e.g., O2.25 = half on O2.0, half on O2.5) to reduce variance.
  • Alt spreads/totals: When your edge is convex (you expect a blowout or extreme pace), alt lines can pay better than standard lines—shop multiple books.
  • Team totals: If one unit drives your handicap (elite offense vs thin defense), isolate with team totals to avoid exposure to the other side.

Market Timing

  • Openers: Softer but risky (injury/news). Good for niche leagues or if you track information closely.
  • Mid-cycle: After injury reports/pressers; partial moves—often best for derivatives.
  • Close: Limits higher, numbers tighter; still value via price shopping and derivatives. See Line Movement & CLV.

How to Measure Hold (Why Books Differ)

Two books can post the same line with different overall “hold” (house edge). Lower hold is better for bettors. Quick check: convert both sides to implied probability and sum; the amount above 100% is the hold. Prefer low-hold menus when edges are thin. See Vig & Juice.

A 5-Step Line Shopping Workflow

  1. Make/borrow a number: Your projection vs market (power rating or trusted model).
  2. Check 3–5 books: Record best number and best price for your side/total.
  3. Value check: Around key numbers, favor the hook; elsewhere, favor cheaper vig if difference is small.
  4. Consider alts/derivatives: If your edge is situational (tempo, matchup), price team totals, 1H, or alt lines.
  5. Size & place: Keep unit sizing consistent. See Units & Staking Plans and Bankroll Management.

Examples

Football: -2.5 (-115) vs -3 (+100)

Near key number 3, the hook is typically worth more than 15 cents. Prefer -2.5 (-115) unless your projection makes 3 unlikely.

Basketball: -4.5 (-110) vs -4 (-118)

One possession matters; paying 8 cents for a push-friendly -4 is often reasonable—especially late-close spreads.

Soccer: Over 2.5 (+100) vs Over 2.25 (-120)

If you lean Over but fear a 2-goal outcome, O2.25 (-120) splits risk (half push at 2). If you project clear 3+, take the plus-money O2.5.

Bankroll & Discipline

  • One number won’t make a season: Apply the same rule every day—edges compound.
  • Avoid chasing steam blindly: If the price moved, re-check your edge or pivot markets.
  • Track CLV: Your number vs close shows if shopping habits are working.

Related Guides

Responsible Gaming

Shopping lines is a long-run edge, not a get-rich-quick scheme. Keep units modest and bet for fun.