Troy heads to Columbia on Saturday evening as a four-touchdown underdog, and the number is the story. No. 20 Missouri is laying 27 points at Faurot Field, with the total sitting at 50.5 after opening a point lower. Both teams walk in at 2-0. The résumés behind those records look nothing alike, though, and the betting public has already leaned hard toward one side of the spread.
Last Updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Troy vs. Missouri — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri |
| When | Saturday, September 19 – 7:00 PM ET |
| TV | SEC Network+ |
Troy vs. Missouri Betting Preview
Missouri opened the season with a 54-14 rout of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, then went on the road and handled Kansas 38-21 in the Border War. That win pushed the Tigers to No. 20 in the AP Top 25. Quarterback Austin Simmons threw three touchdown passes in Lawrence and has been the steadying force in Eli Drinkwitz’s seventh season. The ground game is a different matter. All-America running back Ahmad Hardy has not appeared in a game this season, and Drinkwitz has publicly declined to set a return date. Jamal Roberts has carried the load in his place.
Troy is also unbeaten, but the wins came in a different weight class. The Trojans edged Sam Houston 24-21 in the opener, then beat Alabama State 34-17. Gerad Parker’s third-year group was picked to win the Sun Belt West in the conference preseason coaches poll, and senior defensive lineman Donnie Smith arrived as the league’s preseason defensive player of the year. That front is the reason this team travels with something to sell.
Missouri leads the all-time series 3-1. The last meeting came in October 2019, when the Tigers won 42-10 in Columbia. Saturday also doubles as Missouri’s 100th anniversary celebration of Memorial Stadium, with throwback uniforms and a halftime tribute to the 1960 team. For more on how this market has moved, see our Troy vs. Missouri odds and public betting breakdown.
Troy vs. Missouri Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | +27 (-105) | +1300 | U 50.5 (-115) |
| Missouri | -27 (-115) | -6500 | O 50.5 (-105) |
Odds accurate as of September 19, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest NCAAF Odds – Futures – Props
Troy vs. Missouri — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Troy | 79% | 21% | Missouri |
See the latest College Football Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Troy vs. Missouri Prediction — Can the Trojans Stay Inside Four Touchdowns?
Start with what the market is telling us. This spread opened at 27 on September 13 and it is still 27. What did move was the price. The favorite’s side went from -110 to -115, while the underdog drifted to -105. Meanwhile, 79 percent of spread tickets sit on Troy. When the tickets pile onto the dog and the number refuses to drop, the heavier money is usually on the other side. That is a signal worth respecting, not proof.
The résumé gap supports the favorite, too. Troy needed a three-point win over Sam Houston to open the year and then beat an FCS opponent by 17. Missouri has scored 92 points in two games and just won a Power Four road game by 17. Simmons has been efficient rather than reckless, and Troy’s secondary has not yet faced a passing attack in this tier. A team that gets behind early against Missouri has to throw, and throwing into a lead is how blowouts stretch past four touchdowns.
The case against is real. Twenty-seven points is an enormous ask, and college football is full of cosmetic fourth-quarter touchdowns against backups. Troy’s front, led by Smith, can disrupt a Missouri offensive line that is still finding its footing in the run game without Hardy. If the Trojans win the turnover battle or steal a possession on special teams, the number becomes very hard to reach. Still, the combination of line-hold, price movement and talent gap points one direction.
The Pick: Missouri -27 (-115)
Troy vs. Missouri Prediction — Will the Scoreboard Keep Pace With the Spread?
The total opened at 49.5 and has climbed to 50.5, so there has been some appetite for points. Troy’s two games have produced 45 and 51 combined points, and the Trojans have allowed only 17 and 21. That defense is the strength of the roster, and Parker’s offense has not pushed tempo. Missouri’s games have landed higher, at 68 and 59, but the first of those was a September blowout of an FCS opponent that ended with reserves on the field.
That last detail matters here. If the favorite builds the lead this price implies, the second half turns into clock management and backup snaps. Troy, trailing, would be throwing, which can add points quickly. In contrast, a grinding Troy offense that holds the ball and a Missouri team milking the clock both work against the number. The over gets there if Missouri hits explosive plays early and Troy answers with a pair of scoring drives. We lean the other way.
The Pick: Under 50.5 (-115)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The moneyline is worth a quick word, mostly as a warning. Missouri sits at -6500, which asks for a huge outlay to win a sliver. Troy at +1300 is the lottery ticket side, and the implied probability there is thin for a reason. Neither price offers anything useful, so we are passing on that market entirely rather than forcing a third position.
What we like about this card is that the two picks tell one coherent story. A Missouri win in the 38-10 range covers the spread and stays under the total. The risk is the same in both directions. A competitive first half from Troy, or a shootout, would undo both positions at once. Size accordingly.
Picks recap: Missouri -27 (-115) and Under 50.5 (-115).
NCAAF Troy vs. Missouri FAQ: Saturday September 19, 2026
What time does the Troy vs. Missouri game start?
Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 19, 2026, which is 6:00 p.m. local time in Columbia. Both schools list the same start time on their official game notes. The game is part of a full Week 4 college football slate.
What channel is the Troy vs. Missouri game on?
The game airs on SEC Network+, the conference’s digital-only overflow feed. That means there is no traditional cable channel carrying it. Viewers stream it through the ESPN app or ESPN+ using a participating provider login. Troy’s radio call runs on the Troy Sports Media Network.
Where are Troy and Missouri playing?
The game is at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri, the Tigers’ home venue. Missouri is marking the stadium’s 100th anniversary on Saturday with throwback uniforms and a halftime recognition of its undefeated 1960 team. Troy is the visiting team.
Who won the last meeting between Troy and Missouri?
Missouri won the last meeting 42-10 on October 5, 2019, in Columbia. The schools have played four times, and Missouri leads the all-time series 3-1. Troy’s lone win in the series came in 2004. Saturday is the first meeting between the programs in seven seasons.
Is Troy or Missouri ranked?
Missouri is ranked No. 20 in the current AP Top 25 after moving up following its 38-21 win at Kansas. Troy is unranked, though the Trojans are 2-0 and were picked to win the Sun Belt West in the conference’s preseason coaches poll.