The Portland Fire arrive in Uncasville on Tuesday morning holding something an expansion team rarely gets on the road: the short side of the number. Portland is a one-point favorite at the Connecticut Sun, and that line has already traveled. The Sun opened as a 1.5-point home favorite before injuries and money pushed the market two and a half points the other way. Connecticut is 5-18. Portland just poured in 102 points at Atlanta. On paper this looks simple, which is usually the moment a handicapper slows down.
Last Updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville CT |
| When | Tuesday, July 14 – 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Boston, FOX 12 Plus, WNBA League Pass |
Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun Game Preview
Portland is 10-13 and sixth in the Western Conference. The Fire have won two of their last four and are coming off a 102-92 win at Atlanta in which they buried 14 of 29 threes. That was not a fluke of volume. Portland averages 9.6 made threes per game and shoots 34.6% from deep, both above league average. Megan Gustafson (17 points) and Emily Engstler (14 points, 11 rebounds) supplied the interior counterweight in Atlanta.
Connecticut is 5-18, last in the Eastern Conference, and 3-10 at Mohegan Sun. The Sun have dropped three straight at home and were held to 64 points in Friday’s loss to Golden State, going 4-for-16 from three. That was the 14th time this season they shot under 30% from behind the arc. The roster news matters more. Per the team’s official game status report, Brittney Griner (left quad contusion) is questionable, Aneesah Morrow is out for reconditioning, and Saniya Rivers is out with a left ankle sprain. Griner leads the Sun at 13.5 points per game and Morrow is third at 10.5. Portland is without Sania Feagin, out for the season with a torn left ACL.
If Griner sits again, Olivia Nelson-Ododa starts. She is averaging 12.0 points and 8.9 rebounds in nine starts. Leila Lacan carries the guard load at 14.0 points over her last 10. Portland has won both meetings this season, 83-82 on May 18 and 71-61 on May 27, both in Portland. Neither was a blowout, and neither cleared its total.
Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | -1 (-105) | -110 | U 168.5 (-110) |
| Sun | +1 (-115) | -110 | O 168.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Tuesday, July 14, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest WNBA Odds – Futures – Props
Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Fire | 69% | 31% | Sun |
See the latest WNBA Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Fire vs. Sun Best Bet — Is the Road Favorite Getting Overbought?
Start with the movement. This game opened with Connecticut laying 1.5 at home. It now has Portland laying one. That is a two-and-a-half-point swing toward the visitor, and it lines up with 69% of spread tickets landing on the Fire. When the number and the tickets move together, you are no longer buying at the opening price. You are paying retail for information everyone already has.
The information is real, to be fair. Connecticut may be without three rotation players, including its leading scorer. But Portland is not a road juggernaut. The Fire are 4-7 away from home and 12-11 against the spread on the season. Their last 10 opponents have averaged 98.5 points against them, and Portland is 3-1 in one-possession games, a record that tends to correct rather than compound. Connecticut, for all its losing, is 12-11 ATS on the year and 6-4 ATS over its last 10. Bad teams that keep covering are usually priced about right.
The case against taking the points is straightforward. Portland has beaten this team twice, has the better rotation, and the Sun’s supporting cast has not shown it can survive a hot shooting night from Carleton and company. Nelson-Ododa is a capable fill-in, not a replacement for 24 points of missing production. Our read is simply that the number moved past fair value, and at a near pick’em we would rather hold the point at home than pay for it on the road. For the front half of this Fire road trip, see our Fire vs Dream prediction from July 11.
The Pick: Connecticut Sun +1 (-115)
Fire vs. Sun Prediction — Can a Depleted Sun Offense Help Take it Over?
The total opened at 167.5 and ticked up to 168.5, the market’s nod to Portland’s shooting. The over has hit in seven of the Fire’s last 10, and Connecticut lets opponents shoot 35.9% from three, one of the softer marks in the league. That is a decent case.
The other side is quieter but sturdier. Connecticut is shooting 43.1% from the field and may be missing two of its top three scorers. The Sun also allow just 64.3 field goal attempts per game, the second-fewest in the league, which drags possessions out of the game. Both meetings between these teams stayed under the number, including a 71-61 game in May that never threatened it. Portland’s leaky defense is the wobble here, and if the Fire turn this into a track meet the number gets cleared. We think the Sun’s missing scoring is the heavier weight.
The Pick: Under 168.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The obvious bonus angle is the moneyline. With the spread at a single point and both sides at -110, taking Connecticut outright saves five cents of juice versus the +1. We are not making that swap. The first meeting between these teams finished 83-82. In a series that has already produced a one-point game, the point is worth the nickel. If Griner is upgraded before tip, the current number looks stale. If she sits, the Fire’s edge is real and this pick is closer to a coin flip than we would like.
Our Valkyries vs Sun prediction from July 10 covered a similar spot. Nothing about backing the Sun here is a bet on the Sun being good. It is a bet on a number that moved further than the news justified, in a series that has already produced two tight, low-scoring games.
Picks Recap: Connecticut Sun +1 (-115) and Under 168.5 (-110).
WNBA Fire vs. Sun Prediction Tuesday July 14, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun game start?
Tip-off is 11:00 a.m. ET at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, per the official WNBA game page.
What channel is the Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun game on?
The game airs on NBC Sports Boston in Connecticut and FOX 12 Plus in Portland. It is also on WNBA League Pass.
Who is favored in the Portland Fire vs. Connecticut Sun game?
Portland is a one-point road favorite at -105, with Connecticut at +1 (-115). The moneyline is a pick’em at -110 both ways. The total is 168.5.
Who won the last meeting between the Fire and the Sun?
Portland won 71-61 on May 27 in Portland. The Fire lead the season series 2-0, having also won 83-82 on May 18.
Are Brittney Griner and Aneesah Morrow playing on Tuesday?
Connecticut’s game status report lists Griner as questionable with a left quad contusion, Morrow as out for reconditioning, and Saniya Rivers as out with a left ankle sprain. Portland’s Sania Feagin is out for the season with a torn left ACL.