The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers close a three-game set at Globe Life Field on Sunday afternoon, and the most important name in this game is the one that is not in it. Jacob deGrom was lined up to start for Texas. He will not. That scratch reshapes a matchup the market still prices as a modest Rangers edge, with Texas at -138 and the total at 8.5. Our headline play sides with the road team.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas |
| When | Sunday, July 12 — 2:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Home Network / Rangers Sports Network |
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Game Preview
Start with the pitching, because here the pitching is the story. Rangers manager Skip Schumaker confirmed Friday that deGrom will skip his Sunday start against Houston with a glute and hip strain, the club hoping the All-Star break lets him avoid the injured list. That removes a pitcher who is 7-5 with a 3.49 ERA, 122 strikeouts and 22 walks in 18 starts — Texas’s most reliable arm.
The replacement is not settled. MLB’s official probable pitchers page lists both starters as TBD, and reporting out of Arlington indicated Texas was weighing a bullpen game because no other starter lines up on normal rest. Houston is in a similar spot. Cristian Javier, the name attached to the Astros in most pitching grids, was activated off the injured list to work out of the bullpen after a shoulder strain and is not stretched out for a starter’s workload. Both sides look pointed toward committee pitching on getaway day.
The standings give the game teeth. Texas sits atop the AL West at 48-47 after Houston’s 9-3 win on Saturday, with the Astros at 47-50 and Seattle in between. Houston has taken six of nine meetings this season. The Rangers are the better run-prevention team — a 4.07 staff ERA and 1.25 WHIP against Houston’s 4.81 and 1.40 — but the thinner lineup, with Corey Seager and catcher Danny Jansen both on the 10-day injured list. Houston still runs Yordan Alvarez out at .315 with more than 30 home runs, the most dangerous bat in this series.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | +1.5 (-185) | +115 | U 8.5 (-110) |
| Rangers | -1.5 (+160) | -138 | O 8.5 (-110) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Astros | 50% | 50% | Rangers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Astros vs. Rangers Prediction — Does a Scratched Ace Change the Math?
The load-bearing signal here is asymmetry. Texas lost the best pitcher either team was going to use on Sunday. Houston lost nothing. The Astros were already headed for a patchwork afternoon; the Rangers were not, and now they are. When a rotation collapses into a bullpen day with no off-day cushion, the result is more arms, shorter leashes, more traffic, and a manager pushed into matchups he would rather save.
The market has not charged for it. Texas opened at -138 and sits at -138, and that number was hung after the deGrom news broke, so the book already knows. The small pre-game money has drifted toward Houston — the Astros’ +1.5 bid from -180 up to -185 — while the public is split 50/50 on the run line. Nothing screams sharp action, but nothing is pushing against the road team either. At +115, Houston is asked to win about 46.5% of the time. With neither club naming a starter and the Astros holding six of nine meetings, that is a fair price at worst.
The case against is real. Texas is the better staff by a wide margin, they are in first place, and a bullpen game with a good bullpen is not a disaster — just a different shape of game. Houston owns the 27th-ranked staff ERA, and its own listed arm is a reliever three months removed from a shoulder strain. This is not a mispriced blowout; it is a coin flip sold at slightly better than coin-flip odds. Because the projection is tight rather than lopsided, the moneyline is the right vehicle. The +1.5 cushion at -185 charges far too much in a game likely decided by a run or two.
The Pick: Astros Moneyline (+115)
Astros vs. Rangers Prediction — Who Actually Records the Outs?
The second play falls out of the same fact pattern, which is worth saying plainly rather than manufacturing a different-looking bet for variety’s sake. Two bullpen days on a Sunday before the All-Star break tend to produce traffic. Houston’s staff carries a 4.81 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP with 420 walks issued, and free passes turn a committee game into a long one. Texas has leaned on its relievers all week with no off day. The last two games here produced 10 and 12 runs.
The counter-case is why this is a lean rather than a hammer. The total opened with the over juiced to -115 and has settled at -110 on both sides, meaning the little money that has come in leaned the other way. Globe Life Field is a climate-controlled, retractable-roof park, and both clubs own strong late-inning arms. If either bullpen day runs smoothly for four or five innings, 8.5 becomes a tall number quickly. We are backing the run environment over the market’s small nudge, with eyes open.
The Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The most valuable thing a bettor can do before first pitch is check who Texas actually names. A stretched-out starter on short rest is a different game than an opener followed by four relievers. Both plays above rest on the TBD scenario. If the Rangers surface a legitimate starter and the number holds at -138, the Houston moneyline gets worse, not better.
Then watch the middle innings. Bullpen games are decided by which manager gets caught first, and Alvarez drawing a late at-bat against a tiring middle-relief arm is both Houston’s clearest path and the likeliest route to the crooked number that pushes this over the total.
For more of the Sunday card, see our Mariners vs. Rays prediction — Seattle also has a stake in this AL West race — and our Astros vs. Rangers best bet for Saturday, July 11.
Full card of picks: Astros Moneyline (+115) and Over 8.5 (-110).
MLB Astros vs Rangers Sunday July 12, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers game start?
First pitch is 2:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 12, 2026, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
What channel is the Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers game on?
The game airs on Space City Home Network in the Houston market and Rangers Sports Network in Dallas-Fort Worth.
Who is pitching for the Texas Rangers on Sunday?
Texas has not named a starter. Jacob deGrom was scheduled to pitch but was scratched with a glute and hip strain, and MLB’s official probable pitchers listing shows the Rangers as TBD. A bullpen game is the reported likelihood.
Who is favored in the Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers game?
The Rangers are the home favorite at -138. The Astros are the road underdog at +115, and the total is set at 8.5 runs.
Who won the last meeting between the Astros and Rangers?
Houston won 9-3 at Globe Life Field on Saturday, July 11, evening the series at a game apiece after Texas took the opener 7-3.