The Boston Red Sox arrive at Citi Field on Sunday afternoon riding an eight-game winning streak and holding a 2-0 lead in this three-game interleague set. Boston is a modest -121 favorite behind rookie left-hander Payton Tolle, while the New York Mets counter with left-hander Zach Thornton, who has thrown 10.1 big-league innings this season. The total sits at 8.5. That number, more than the side, is where our headline read lives — because the Mets have not scored more than two runs in either game of this series.
Last Updated: Sunday, July 12, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York |
| When | Sunday, July 12 — 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, WPIX (MLB.TV) |
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets Game Preview
Start with the arms, because this game is built around them. Tolle takes the ball for Boston with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 80 strikeouts against 24 walks across 80.1 innings. That strikeout-to-walk profile is the tell. He misses bats at roughly a strikeout per inning and keeps the free passes down, which is exactly the combination that limits traffic and keeps innings short. Thornton arrives with a much thinner file: a 4.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 10.1 innings, per the ESPN game preview. He has been effective in that small sample. He has not carried anything close to a full major-league workload.
The form gap is stark. Boston has won eight in a row and sits at 45-48, third in the AL East. More to the point, the Red Sox have allowed two runs or fewer in each of their last five games, winning 8-1, 5-0, 2-1, 6-2 and 4-0. The Mets are 40-56, last in the NL East, and have dropped the first two of this series by a combined 10-2. New York’s offense has been the drag all year: a .235 team batting average and a .304 on-base percentage. Juan Soto is doing his part at .294/.410/.570 with 21 home runs, but the lineup around him has produced little.
Both sides are short-handed. Boston is without Willson Contreras, its leader in batting average, home runs and RBI, who is serving a suspension. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nick Sogard are on the injured list. For New York, Bo Bichette is day-to-day, Luis Robert Jr. remains out, and the bullpen is missing three arms — Dedniel Nunez, Justin Hagenman and Austin Warren.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -1.5 (+135) | -121 | U 8.5 (-125) |
| Mets | +1.5 (-160) | +101 | O 8.5 (+105) |
Odds accurate as of Sunday, July 12, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Red Sox | 77% | 23% | Mets |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction — Has Anyone Told These Lineups It Is Only 8.5?
The run environment in this series has been bleak, and the reasons are structural rather than accidental. Tolle’s 1.07 WHIP means he simply does not put many runners on base, and he is facing a lineup that gets on base at a .304 clip. The Mets have scored two runs and zero runs in the first two games of this set. Boston’s staff, meanwhile, has held five straight opponents to two runs or fewer, and the team ERA of 3.65 is nearly seven-tenths of a run better than New York’s 4.32. Two left-handers, one elite-command rookie and one offense that has not produced, is the recipe for a quiet afternoon.
The market appears to agree, and that matters. The total opened at 8.5 with the under priced at -120 and the over at +100. It has not moved off 8.5, but the under juice has climbed to -125 while the over has drifted to +105. That is money arriving on the low side without the number budging — modest, but a confirmation of the read rather than a contradiction of it.
Now the honest counter-case, and it is a real one. Thornton has all of 10.1 major-league innings this year, and a young arm on a short leash hands the game to a Mets bullpen missing three relievers. If Boston chases him in the fourth, the middle innings can get loud in a hurry — New York already surrendered 16 runs to Kansas City on July 7. The Red Sox have also scored at least four runs in each of their last five games. Laying -125 on an under is not cheap, and this is a lean, not a certainty.
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-125)
Red Sox vs. Mets Best Bet — Will Boston Make it 9 in a Row Heading into The Break?
Here is the market puzzle. Roughly 84% of moneyline tickets and 77% of run-line tickets are on Boston, yet the price has barely responded. The Red Sox opened at -117 on the moneyline and sit at -121 now. On a game with that ticket imbalance, a four-cent move is close to a line freeze, and a freeze against heavy public money is usually a caution flag on the popular side, not a green light. Buying Boston at -121 means paying full retail for a story everybody already knows.
The run line is where the same thesis still gets paid. Four of Boston’s last five wins came by three runs or more, and a road favorite bats in the ninth even while leading, which is exactly the situation that turns one-run wins into two-run wins. Per the Baseball-Reference matchup page, the Mets have been a losing club at home this season. The counter is straightforward: the run line has already shortened from +150 to +135, so the best of the number is gone, and a Boston lineup without Contreras is not built for blowouts. This is a lean built on the same pitching thesis as the first pick, and we would rather say that plainly than manufacture a second angle for the sake of variety.
The Pick: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+135)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
Two swing points decide this one. The first is how long Thornton lasts. If he gives New York five innings of two-run baseball, the Mets are live on the moneyline at +101 and both of our positions are in trouble. If he exits in the fourth, the exposed Mets bullpen has to cover a lot of ground against a lineup that has been productive for two weeks. The second is whether the Mets can finally do anything against left-handed pitching in this series after being held to two runs and then shut out.
Watch the top of the Mets order early. Soto is the one hitter here capable of changing the math on a single swing, and a homer plus one crooked inning is all it takes to flip an under. That is the risk we are accepting.
For more Sunday MLB action, see our Yankees vs. Nationals prediction, and check our latest MLB best bets coverage for the wider slate.
Our picks: Under 8.5 (-125) and Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+135).
MLB Red Sox vs. Mets Prediction Sunday July 12, 2026 FAQ
What time does the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets game start?
First pitch at Citi Field is set for 1:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 12, 2026.
Who is pitching for the Red Sox and Mets on Sunday?
Left-hander Payton Tolle (5-6, 3.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) starts for Boston. Left-hander Zach Thornton (0-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) starts for New York.
Who is favored in the Red Sox vs. Mets game?
Boston is a slim road favorite at -121 on the moneyline, with the Mets at +101. The run line has the Red Sox at -1.5 (+135) and the total is set at 8.5 runs.
Who won the last meeting between the Red Sox and Mets?
Boston won 4-0 on Saturday, July 11, and 6-2 on Friday, July 10. The Red Sox lead the three-game series 2-0.
What are the Red Sox and Mets records this season?
Boston is 45-48 and third in the AL East. New York is 40-56 and last in the NL East.