The Arizona Diamondbacks hammered the best team in baseball 9-3 at Dodger Stadium on Friday, and now they draw the hardest assignment of the series. Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the ball for Los Angeles in his final start before the All-Star break, and the market has made the Dodgers a -290 favorite with the run line at -1.5 (-125). Nearly nine of every ten run-line tickets sit on the home side. Yet the number has not moved a cent since it opened, and that freeze is where our first play begins.
Last Updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Time & How to Watch
| Where | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California |
| When | Saturday, July 11 — 9:10 PM ET |
| TV | SportsNet LA |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview
Yamamoto has been the most reliable arm in the National League this season. He carries a 9-5 record, a 2.49 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and 100 strikeouts across 104 2/3 innings, and 13 of his 16 outings have gone for quality starts. His last time out he threw seven shutout innings against San Diego with 10 strikeouts. Arizona has seen plenty of him: in seven career regular-season starts against the Diamondbacks, Yamamoto is 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings.
Brandon Pfaadt is the other half of this matchup, and his 4.84 season ERA badly undersells where he is right now. Pfaadt lost his rotation spot in the spring, spent 10 outings in the bullpen, and was optioned to Triple-A Reno to reset. He made three starts there with a 1.80 ERA, and since returning he has allowed one earned run across 10 1/3 innings in two starts, including five scoreless against the Padres on July 6 with six strikeouts and no walks. The caveat is workload. He is still building back up as a starter, and five innings has been the ceiling.
The context around the Dodgers matters as much as the arms. Shohei Ohtani was scratched from Friday’s start with left knee irritation and will not pitch in the All-Star Game. He is still hitting, but the scratch forced Los Angeles into an unplanned bullpen game that ended 9-3. Manager Dave Roberts said afterward that the club needs Yamamoto to take on a large share of Saturday’s game. Arizona arrived a game under .500 at 46-47 and evened its record with the win, while the Dodgers fell to 61-34.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
| Run Line | Moneyline | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 (+105) | +230 | U 9 (-120) |
| Dodgers | -1.5 (-125) | -290 | O 9 (+100) |
Odds accurate as of Saturday, July 11, 2026 via TheSpread.com. Odds change, get the latest MLB Odds – Futures – Props
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Who Is the Public Betting?
| Diamondbacks | 11% | 89% | Dodgers |
See the latest MLB Public Betting Splits and make smarter wagers!
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction — Why Isn’t This Number Moving?
Start with the market, because it is doing something unusual. This game opened at -290 on the Dodgers with the run line at -1.5 (-125), and hours later it sits in exactly the same place. That is happening while 89 percent of run-line bets and 91 percent of moneyline bets sit on Los Angeles. When money that lopsided arrives and the number refuses to drift toward the popular side, it usually means the house is content to keep taking it. A frozen line under heavy one-way action is a quiet signal, but it deserves attention.
The structure of the bet supports the same read. Laying -1.5 with a home favorite is the least forgiving version of that wager. The Dodgers do not bat in the ninth when they lead, so any one-run win at home is a losing run-line ticket. That is not a small subset of this matchup, either. These teams have met seven times this season, and four of those games finished by a single run. Yamamoto is the reason the price is where it is, and he has earned it. Still, a rebuilt Pfaadt attacking the zone the way he has since Reno is a different pitcher from the one carrying a 4.84 ERA, and Arizona’s lineup already proved on Friday that it can put nine on the board in this ballpark.
Here is the honest case against it. Two of the seven meetings this year were 7-0 and 8-2 routs in favor of the Dodgers, and Los Angeles has the deeper lineup plus real motivation to avoid a second straight loss to a .500 team before the break. If Yamamoto rolls through seven and the Dodgers get to Pfaadt early, this is over by the seventh. The counter is that the price already assumes all of that, and the cushion is available at plus money.
The Pick: Diamondbacks Run Line +1.5 (+105)
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction — Do Two Sharp Arms Mean a Quiet Night?
The total is the second place this game looks out of step with its own inputs. Nine runs is a full number for a Dodger Stadium matchup featuring an ace with a 0.88 WHIP and an Arizona offense hitting .236 as a team with 386 runs scored. Yamamoto has held opponents to a .190 average and walked 21 hitters all season. Pfaadt has thrown strikes since returning from Reno rather than nibbling. Roberts also plans to lean on Yamamoto for length, which keeps a bullpen that worked a full relief game Friday out of the middle innings.
The over case is real and worth naming. Pfaadt is capped around five innings, which hands four to an Arizona bullpen missing A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, and the Dodgers have scored 494 runs. Arizona also just put up nine here. If Pfaadt exits with a lead in the sixth, this total can climb in a hurry. The read is that the front half is quiet enough to absorb a noisy back half.
The Pick: Under 9 (-120)
Final Thoughts and Bonus Angle
The swing moment arrives in the sixth inning. If Pfaadt hands the ball to Arizona’s bullpen with the game within a run, both positions stay alive. If he is chased in the fourth, both are in trouble at once. That correlation is worth stating plainly rather than dressing up: these are two views of the same read, that this projects as a tight, low-scoring game between a great pitcher and a pitcher whose current form is far better than his season line.
The other thing to watch is how long Roberts rides his ace. Yamamoto’s workload Saturday may determine whether he is available in Philadelphia on Tuesday, and a manager weighing that decision may be quicker to the phone than usual. A short leash would put a bullpen that just covered nine innings back to work, and that is the scenario that hurts the under most. For more of Saturday’s card, see our Angels vs. Twins run line breakdown and our latest MLB best bets coverage.
To recap the two plays from this game: Diamondbacks Run Line +1.5 (+105) and Under 9 (-120).
MLB Diamondbacks Prediction FAQ
What time does the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game start?
First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 PM ET (6:10 PM PT) on Saturday, July 11, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.
What channel is the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game on?
The game airs regionally on SportsNet LA, and it is also available on MLB.TV.
Who is pitching for the Dodgers on Saturday?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts for Los Angeles. He is 9-5 with a 2.49 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings. Brandon Pfaadt (2-1, 4.84 ERA) starts for Arizona.
Who is favored in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers game?
Los Angeles is a -290 moneyline favorite and is laying -1.5 (-125) on the run line. Arizona is +230 on the moneyline and +1.5 (+105) on the run line, with the total set at 9.
Who won the last meeting between Arizona and Los Angeles?
The Diamondbacks won 9-3 at Dodger Stadium on Friday, July 10, in the opener of this three-game series. Los Angeles leads the season series 5-3.