Spain sit at the top of the outright betting for the upcoming World Cup, ranked number one in the world and arriving in North America as reigning European champions. With odds of around 9/2 at the time of writing, Luis de la Fuente’s side are the team every other nation is measured against. They lead the pack among the World Cup favourites 2026, but is that status fully justified, or are the bookmakers getting carried away?
What the March squad tells us
De la Fuente named his final squad before the tournament this month, and it is the last real audition window before the World Cup begins in June. The headline name is Joan Garcia, the Barcelona goalkeeper, earning his first senior call-up at the age of 23. The competition for the number one shirt between Garcia, Unai Simon, David Raya, and Alex Remiro is a fascinating subplot in itself, and a luxury most nations can only dream of.
The return of Rodri is arguably the biggest story. The Manchester City midfielder missed Euro 2024 through injury, and his absence showed. Spain still won the tournament, but they were more vulnerable without his engine room presence. If Rodri arrives in North America fit and in form, Spain are a different proposition entirely.
Key absences through injury this window include Mikel Merino, Fabian Ruiz, Pablo Barrios, and Alejandro Balde, while Gavi missed out despite returning to action at Barcelona. Four new faces were handed call-ups in Mosquera, Garcia, Victor Munoz, and Ander Barrenetxea, reflecting De la Fuente’s willingness to keep the squad refreshed and competitive throughout.
The squad depth is exceptional
Across every line of the pitch, Spain have options that other favourites would envy. In goal, the debate between Simon and Raya alone is a sign of embarrassing riches. The defensive line of Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Dean Huijsen, and Marc Cucurella covers pace, experience, and ball-playing ability. Alex Grimaldo at left back provides a genuine attacking threat down the flank.
The midfield is where Spain truly stand apart. Rodri, Martin Zubimendi, Pedri, Dani Olmo, and Carlos Soler give De la Fuente a range of profiles to work with, from destructive pressing to elegant control. Up front, Lamine Yamal returned to the squad after an injury-enforced absence in November, and the 18-year-old is already one of the most feared attackers in the world. Ferran Torres, Mikel Oyarzabal, Alex Baena, and Borja Iglesias provide further depth in attack.
The group stage should pose no problems
Spain have been drawn in Group H alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and debutants Cape Verde. They are overwhelming favourites to win the group, and realistically, the first two rounds of the knockout stage should not test them too severely.
The real question, as it often is with Spain at major tournaments, is whether they can maintain their level and deliver in the latter stages when the opposition quality rises.
It is worth noting that Spain have won only three of their 11 World Cup matches since lifting the trophy in 2010, a record that sits awkwardly alongside their reputation. Euro 2024 was a reminder of just how good they can be, but the World Cup has a habit of exposing teams that are not quite ready to go the distance.
Are they worthy favourites?
For those browsing the football odds, Spain’s case as favourites is a strong one. Ranked first in the world, stocked with elite talent at every position, tactically coherent under a manager who won a European Championship with them, and in a manageable group. The ingredients are there.
The concern is not the group stage, nor is it the first knockout round. It is the semi-final and beyond, where France, Brazil, England, and Argentina will all be lurking. Spain have the quality to beat any of those sides on any given day. History suggests, though, that the team who lifts the World Cup is not always the best team in the tournament. It is the one that peaks at exactly the right moment.
Spain have everything it takes to do that. Whether they actually do remains the most compelling question of the summer.