Last Updated on March 19, 2026 9:23 am by Anthony Rome
March Madness tips off on Thursday afternoon and I have six betting selections that I love on today’s card. Read on for my March Madness Best Bets for Thursday, March 19.
Troy +13.5 vs. Nebraska
This is a classic 13 vs. 4 matchup where the underdog has a real path to hanging around.
Nebraska, led by head coach Fred Hoiberg, brings elite defense and perimeter shooting, but they’re still relatively inexperienced in March success.
Troy, under Scott Cross, thrives in physical games and has already shown resilience late in the season. They’ve adjusted without injured big Theo Seng and leaned into a guard-heavy attack that keeps games tight.
Nebraska’s defense is legit — but 13.5 points is a big number in a game that likely slows down. Troy doesn’t need to win — just stay within striking distance.
👉 Pick: Troy +13.5
Louisville -4.5 vs. South Florida
South Florida brings energy, rebounding, and chaos — but that style doesn’t always translate in March.
The Bulls rely heavily on offensive boards and free throws, but their shooting inefficiency (just ~33% from three) becomes a major liability against structured defenses.
Louisville, with superior guard play and coaching discipline, is built to exploit that. They can control tempo and force USF into half-court sets — exactly where the Bulls struggle most.
This is a bad stylistic matchup for USF.
👉 Pick: Louisville -4.5
Texas +2.5 vs. BYU
This is one of the most intriguing coin-flip games on the board — and that’s exactly why we’re grabbing the points.
BYU brings offensive firepower, but Texas has the kind of athleticism and defensive versatility that travels in March. In tight games, teams that can defend multiple positions and control pace tend to outperform expectations.
This has all the makings of a one-possession game late — and getting +2.5 gives us value on a team fully capable of winning outright.
👉 Pick: Texas +2.5
Saint Mary’s -3.5 vs. Texas A&M
This is one of the sharpest plays on the board.
Saint Mary’s, coached by Randy Bennett, plays one of the slowest and most disciplined styles in the country. They control tempo, rebound at a high level, and force opponents into uncomfortable possessions.
Texas A&M, now under Bucky McMillan, wants the exact opposite — pace, pressure, and chaos.
That contrast matters — and historically, the team that dictates tempo wins. Saint Mary’s is far more reliable at imposing its style, especially with size advantages like Paulius Murauskas and elite rebounding.
This is a matchup edge, not just a number.
👉 Pick: Saint Mary’s -3.5
Georgia -2.5 vs. Saint Louis
This is a sneaky undervalued spot.
Public sentiment is leaning toward Saint Louis as a trendy upset team — even drawing bold predictions for deep runs.
That’s exactly why Georgia is the sharper side.
Georgia brings SEC-level athleticism and physicality that Saint Louis doesn’t see consistently. In a tight spread game, that matters — especially late when possessions get tougher and defense wins out.
Fade the hype, trust the matchup.
👉 Pick: Georgia -2.5
Idaho +23.5 vs. Houston
Yes, Houston is elite. Yes, Kelvin Sampson’s team is a legitimate Final Four contender.
But this number is massive.
Houston plays slow, methodical basketball — not the kind of style that typically creates 25+ point margins in tournament settings. Even when dominating, they’re more likely to win by 18–22 than completely blow teams out.
Idaho, meanwhile, is riding momentum from a strong conference tournament run and finally back in March Madness for the first time in decades.
This has “backdoor cover” written all over it.
👉 Pick: Idaho +23.5
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