Last Updated on February 14, 2026 9:41 am by admin
Spain sits at the top of every major futures board four months before the tournament begins on June 11. The gap between them and the rest of the field tells you something real about how oddsmakers see this tournament playing out.
The 2022 World Cup generated roughly $35 billion in worldwide wagering handle, and the 2026 edition, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is expected to surpass that figure.
Caesars executive Mark Bickerdike has said publicly that he expects records to fall, noting that an extended tournament played in a U.S.-customer-friendly time zone should produce the highest handle in soccer betting the industry has ever seen. So the money is coming. The question is where the smart money lands.
Spain at the Front of the Pack
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Spain is listed at +450. BetMGM has them even shorter at +400. That BetMGM number is worth paying attention to because of how far it has moved. When futures first opened after the 2022 tournament, BetMGM listed Spain as the sixth choice at +1000, behind co-favorites France and Brazil, who both sat at +600.
As of December 10, Spain had compressed to +400. That kind of movement over a long period tells you where the public and the sharps have been putting their money. At BetMGM, Spain leads in both ticket count and total dollars wagered, drawing 1.5 times as many tickets as the next trio of England, France, and Portugal.
On prediction markets aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket, Spain holds a 15.7% implied probability, which translates to roughly +538 in American odds. The World Cup winner contract across those platforms has generated $4.1 million in trading volume, and Spain tops that market as well.
England, France, and the Chasing Group
England sits at +550 on DraftKings, with a 12.9% implied probability on prediction markets. France follows at +750 on DraftKings and 12.1% on prediction markets. Brazil and Argentina are both at +800, Portugal at +1000, and Germany at +1200. The Netherlands is further back at +2000.
France remains a fixture in the top three of every board. They have Kylian Mbappe, depth across every position, and a recent tournament pedigree that includes a 2018 title and a 2022 final. England has been a consistent semifinal or final threat since 2018 and will carry public backing from a large betting market. Brazil and Argentina are priced together, which feels generous toward one and punitive toward the other, depending on your read of their current squads and qualifying form.
Stretching Your Bankroll on World Cup Futures
Most sportsbooks run promotional offers around major tournaments, and the 2026 World Cup will be no exception. Platforms like DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars frequently roll out boosted odds or deposit matches on futures markets, and using promotions like the 888sport Promo Code or similar sign-up offers from competing books lets you spread smaller stakes across multiple selections without overcommitting your own funds.
Placing futures bets on several contenders at different price points is a practical way to manage risk, especially when odds on teams like Brazil or Germany remain above +800.
The Golden Boot Race
The favorite for the top scorer award is Mbappe at a best price of +700. He has scored consistently at both club and international levels and will turn 27 during the tournament, putting him in his prime.
Erling Haaland is the other name generating serious attention. He scored 16 goals in 8 World Cup qualifying matches, a rate that is hard to dismiss regardless of opponent quality. The 2026 edition will be his first World Cup appearance, and Norway drew a tough group that includes France. If Norway advances deep enough for Haaland to accumulate minutes, his volume of chances should be among the highest in the tournament.
What About the United States?
The host nation is priced at +8000 on DraftKings. At BetMGM, the U.S. ranks fifth in ticket count and sixth in total money wagered, which makes it the book’s largest liability because of those long odds.
Home crowd support and favorable scheduling will help, but the price reflects where the American squad sits relative to the established powers. This is also the first World Cup held in a fully regulated, nationwide U.S. sports betting environment, so domestic handle on the host team will be substantial.
Japan and Morocco as Dark Horse Value Plays
Japan sits at +10000 on most boards, and Morocco is priced around +8000. Those numbers reflect outsider status, but recent tournament results tell a different story. Japan topped Group E, which included Germany and Spain, at the 2022 World Cup.
Morocco went further, reaching the semifinals and beating Belgium, Spain, and Portugal along the way. Neither result was a fluke carried by a single moment. Both teams demonstrated tactical structure and defensive discipline that carried over across multiple rounds.
The 2026 draw puts Japan in Group F alongside the Netherlands, Tunisia, and a playoff qualifier. Morocco was drawn into Group C with Brazil, Ecuador, and South Africa. Both groups are navigable.
For bettors looking beyond the top of the board, these are the two sides with the clearest combination of recent pedigree and favorable pricing. The market still treats them as novelties. Their 2022 results suggest otherwise.
Where the Value Sits
Germany at +1200 and the Netherlands at +2000 are worth a second look for bettors who think the favorites are overexposed. Norway at +2800 is a long shot built almost entirely around Haaland, a thin thesis for a team sport but a reasonable lottery ticket given his qualifying output. Portugal at +1000 still has enough talent to compete with anyone over seven matches.
The odds will keep moving as the tournament approaches, rosters get finalized, and warm-up results come in. Locking in prices now means accepting uncertainty about fitness and form. But the current boards give a reasonable starting picture of how the field is stacked heading into the summer.