Quarterbacks have dominated the Super Bowl MVP award in year’s past but will it be more of the same in the Seahawks vs. Patriots matchup on Sunday? We hand out Super Bowl LX MVP selections for whether you like the Seahawks or Patriots (no surprises here), as well as one longshot play.

Super Bowl LX Betting Odds & Game Info

📅 Date / Time: Sunday, February 8, 2026 — 6:30 p.m. ET
📍 Venue: Levi’s Stadium — Santa Clara, California
📺 TV / Streaming: NBC / Peacock / NFL App / Telemundo

🏈 Latest Odds (as of Feb. 7)

• Point Spread: Seahawks -4.5

• Moneyline: Seahawks approx. –223 | Patriots approx. +203

• Total (Over/Under): ≈ 45.5 points

Super Bowl LX MVP Betting Overview

Quarterbacks dominate the Super Bowl MVP market, and this year is no different. Seattle’s Sam Darnold enters as the betting favorite, while New England rookie Drake Maye sits close behind as the Patriots’ most likely path to an MVP if they win. Longshot defensive options such as Ernest Jones IV offer massive payouts but require a very specific game script.

Current betting markets list Darnold around +120 to +130, with Maye near +230, reinforcing the expectation that the award will again favor the winning quarterback.
Meanwhile, Jones appears far down the board with longshot odds in the +7500 range or longer, illustrating just how rare defensive MVP winners are in the Super Bowl.

If the Seahawks Win: Sam Darnold MVP (+120)

Darnold’s MVP case is straightforward. Quarterbacks have historically dominated the award, and he’s both the favorite and the signal-caller for the favored team.

Seattle’s offense flows through Darnold’s efficiency and decision-making, meaning any Seahawks victory likely includes:

• Multiple touchdown passes

• Clean turnover margin

• Late-game scoring drive or defining moment

Because MVP voting heavily rewards narrative and quarterback production, Darnold is the most logical and safest MVP ticket on the board.

Prediction

Pick: Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl LX MVP (+120)
If Seattle lifts the Lombardi Trophy, Darnold is the overwhelmingly likely recipient.

Public Betting Tickets

Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.

If the Patriots Win: Drake Maye MVP (+240)

For New England, the MVP conversation almost certainly begins and ends with Drake Maye.

Quarterbacks consistently win the award, and Maye owns the shortest odds among Patriots players.
A Patriots upset would almost certainly require:

• High passing volume

• Multiple touchdown throws

• A defining late-game drive

Without that type of performance, New England probably doesn’t win—making Maye tightly correlated with a Patriots victory.

Prediction

Pick: Drake Maye to win Super Bowl LX MVP (+240)
Any Patriots championship script almost guarantees Maye takes home MVP honors.

Longshot Value: Ernest Jones IV (+9000)

Defensive players rarely win Super Bowl MVP, which explains Jones’ massive odds.
However, defensive MVP paths do exist—usually requiring:

• A game-changing interception or touchdown

• Double-digit tackles with constant impact

• Seattle winning a defensive-driven, low-scoring game

Jones fits the mold of a high-impact linebacker capable of producing splash plays, making him an intriguing lottery-ticket wager.

Prediction

Pick: Ernest Jones IV longshot MVP sprinkle
Not likely—but the payout justifies a small speculative bet.

Final Super Bowl LX MVP Prediction

• Best Bet Overall: Sam Darnold MVP

• Patriots Win Scenario: Drake Maye MVP

• Best Longshot: Ernest Jones IV

The betting market—and Super Bowl history—both point toward the winning quarterback. That makes Darnold the most probable MVP, with Maye the clear contingency if New England pulls the upset.

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