Tuesday CBB Best Bets Feb. 3: Total in BC-Duke matchup set too high?

Last Updated on February 3, 2026 12:25 pm by Anthony Rome

Even if Duke winds up blowing out ACC foe Boston College on Tuesday night, will the game stay under the total? Is the over the best bet in tonight’s MAC matchup between Miami (OH) and Buffalo? And despite laying a large number, is UConn the play versus Xavier as a home favorite? Our Tuesday CBB Best Bets Feb. 3 column offers selections for all three of these matchups.

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CBB Best Bet: Miami OH/Buffalo over 163.5

Why this Over makes sense: Miami (OH) is arguably the most exciting non-Power-Five offense in the country, averaging high possessions and post-entry scoring that keeps games up in the 80s regularly, while Buffalo’s defense has shown susceptibility to runs and inconsistent late-game switches. Buffalo also can score in double figures without stalling, pushing tempo at home. With both teams showing offensive comfort and middling defensive efficiency, a 164-point (or thereabouts) total is squarely in range, especially if Miami gets out quickly (they’ve played plenty of over totals recently).

Key factors:

The game was previously listed with a total around 164.5 internationally — suggesting that two high-tempo offenses are expected to produce points well above average college basketball totals.
Buffalo’s ability to create turnovers and transition opportunities makes it easier to clear high totals, while Miami has the offensive depth to sustain pressure across all four quarters.

Betting Tip: Target the Over as teams with similar offensive profiles and middling defense tend to push totals especially in March-implication races like this one.

CBB Best Bet: UConn -17.5 (at Xavier)

Why the Huskies on the spread: Connecticut, one of the nation’s elite defenses and Big East contenders, literally throttled Xavier in their first meeting by 23 points (90-67), showing matchup advantages in rebounding, transition defense, and scoring balance. They also rank top-5 nationally in defensive efficiency and excel in limiting second-chance opportunities — the exact kinds of edges that produce large margins in Big East games.

Key reasons to lay points here:

UConn’s dominant road/neutral performance and elite D translates into consistent double-digit victories if they control pace.
Xavier has lost most of its conference setbacks by single digits, but the Musketeers have yet to show consistent scoring against teams at UConn’s level — making a near-18 point spread look attainable if UConn takes command early.

CBB Best Bets: Boston College/Duke Under 140.5

Why the UNDER is compelling: Duke’s offense is elite, but against a Boston College squad that plays deliberately slow, struggles from deep, and often results in long possessions, pace collapses. Boston College is one of the slower, lower-scoring teams nationally, prone to long defensive sets and misses that keep games below expected scoring lines. Meanwhile, Duke — even as heavy favorites — tends to play with controlled offense early and shorten games with bench minutes once comfortable, which can suppress totals below early inflated projections.

Key reasons total stays low:

BC’s offensive inefficiency (struggling shooting splits) keeps possessions elongated and scoring down.
Duke, once up by a big lead, tends to slow pace and play reserve minutes, especially late — meaning point flow often dries up rather than exploding toward a high total.

Betting Tip: UNDER 140.5 leverages both BC’s slow pace and Duke’s tendency to clamp down defensively — particularly in slower halves.