The AFC Championship Game has huge stakes, as the winner advances to Super Bowl 60. New England travels to Denver with the offense clicking behind Drake Maye, while the Broncos will start Jarrett Stidham at QB after Bo Nix went down with a season-ending injury. Read on for our Patriots vs. Broncos Player Props Picks for the AFC title game.
Patriots vs. Broncos Game Day Information
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📅 Game Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
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📍 Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
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📺 TV: CBS
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⏰ Kickoff: ~3:00 p.m. ET
Opening line: Patriots -5.5/Broncos +5.5
🔥 Top Patriots Player Prop Picks
📊 1) Rhamondre Stevenson – Over ~47.5 Rushing Yards
The veteran running back has been the go-to runner in the playoffs, with multiple games over this mark, and he should see plenty of volume with New England projected to control the clock. This line has been one of the most popular props for the Championship.
Why it’s a good play: Patriots likely try to keep Stidham off the field, and Stevenson’s physical running style works even against a strong Broncos front.
📈 2) Drake Maye – Over ~223.5 Passing Yards
Maye has consistently hit similar passing yards totals this season and is central to New England’s offense. Prop markets are giving him a chance to beat his number again — especially if New England hits the scoreboard first and forces Denver to throw more.
Keep in mind: Denver’s pass defense has been solid but did allow a strong passing performance in the Divisional Round.
Public Betting Tickets
Numbers update frequently — check the latest on the NFL public betting chart and learn usage basics in our public betting guide.
✨ 3) Kayshon Boutte – Over ~35.5 Receiving Yards
Boutte has led the Patriots’ receiver group in snaps and production, and Maye tends to lean on his top targets — especially in big games. This prop has decent volume and a favorable matchup.
Bonus: Tight end Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop (e.g., Over ~9.5) also shows value and ties into the Pats’ passing structure.
📌 Broncos/Other Props Worth a Look
🧠 Jarrett Stidham – Under ~200.5 Passing Yards
Multiple sportsbooks and analyst props are teasing this number. With Stidham out of action since 2023 and facing a Patriots defense that’s been limiting QB production, the under looks reasonable if New England keeps up pressure.
🙅 Courtland Sutton – Under ~21.5 Longest Reception
If Stidham can’t push the ball deep consistently, Sutton may struggle to hit big plays downfield.
🏈 Fun & High-Upside Props
These don’t have to be your core bets but can spice up a ticket:
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Stefon Diggs – First TD Scorer (+1000) — veteran threat getting looks in the red zone.
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RJ Harvey – Anytime TD Scorer — Broncos playmakers can make splash plays even with an inexperienced QB.
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Maye Anytime TD Scorer — offers big upside as the Patriots’ centerpiece.
🧠 Betting Angle
With Denver breaking in a new QB and New England’s offense more proven, you’ll see a mix of Pats offensive yardage props and under props on Broncos passing yardage gaining traction. Running game and short-to-intermediate passing targets may be safer plays than aggressive vertical shots in this matchup.
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