This AFC Championship Game features two 14-3 powerhouses with contrasting journeys to the brink of the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots are vying for a return to football’s biggest stage behind MVP-level production from Drake Maye, while the Denver Broncos host at Mile High standing on the back of a ferocious defense and gritty playoff wins — even as adversity at quarterback looms large. Here’s a deeper dive into this Patriots vs. Broncos AFC title game matchup, including what will decide the game and how it should play out.
Patriots vs. Broncos Game Day Information
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📅 Game Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
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📍 Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
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📺 TV: CBS
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⏰ Kickoff: ~3:00 p.m. ET
Opening line: Patriots -5.5/Broncos +5.5
🧠 Offensive & Defensive Profiles
Patriots Offense:
New England’s offense finished the regular season ranked near the top of the league in both efficiency and accuracy: they led the NFL with a 71.9% completion rate and the highest catch rate on targeted passes. The Pats also averaged 28.8 points per game and ranked third in total offense overall.
However, their recent playoff success has required tightening the offense and relying on big plays from playmakers like Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, and a strong running game featuring TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. The key for New England has been establishing rhythm without turning the ball over — a challenge against Denver’s front.
Broncos Defense:
Denver’s defense is elite across multiple categories. Statistically, this unit finished top-3 in overall defense, No. 1 in yards per play allowed, and No. 3 in scoring defense. They also led the league with 68 sacks during the regular season.
Their ability to generate pressure and force negative plays — like they did to Josh Allen in the divisional round — is the defensive identity that can tilt a championship game. Veteran playmakers like Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain II anchor this unit’s ability to make game-changing plays.
Public Betting Tickets
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📌 Quarterback Impact — Game’s Central Narrative
Drake Maye (Patriots):
Maye enters this game as one of the NFL’s top signal callers, showing MVP-level stuff with pinpoint accuracy and play-making ability. But through two playoff games, he’s also been under duress, taking a team-leading 10 sacks and coughing up six fumbles. That roller coaster — dynamic upside with turnover risk — defines New England’s offensive ceiling in Denver.
Jarrett Stidham (Broncos):
The storyline on the other sideline is dramatic: Bo Nix — Denver’s breakout starter — suffered a broken ankle in the overtime divisional win and will miss the AFC title game. That leaves Jarrett Stidham, a career backup with limited recent NFL playing time, to start the biggest game of his career.
Stidham’s lack of recent game action — he hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since 2023 — injects uncertainty into Denver’s offense. Under a conservative, methodical game plan, his experience learning under Sean Payton matters, but it’s fair to wonder whether he can sustain consistent production against a Patriots defense that thrives on takeaways and limiting explosive plays.
🧩 Matchup Breakdowns That Matter Most
🔶 Patriots Running Game vs. Denver Front Seven:
New England’s combo of Henderson and Stevenson can control tempo and shorten the game — vital if Maye’s pass protection gets overwhelmed. Denver’s defense is stout versus the run, but the Patriots’ balance and ability to run from a variety of sets could open up play-action opportunities.
🔷 Pass Rush vs. Maye & Protection:
The biggest chokepoint for New England is protecting Maye. Denver’s pass rush is elite, and several Broncos defenders have consistently beaten blockers in space. If Maye has time to throw, the Patriots’ vertical accuracy can score points in chunks. If not, sacks and turnovers could change the game.
🔶 Denver Offense vs. Patriots Defense:
Without Nix’s dual-threat ability, Denver’s attack shifts more to short, efficient passes and the run game. New England’s defense — allowing under 19 points per game in the regular season — is well-equipped to clamp down on rhythm offenses.
🧠 Historical & Psychological Edge
New England has the stylistic edge as the more balanced and efficient offensive team, but Denver’s rich history in championship games at Mile High — including a perfect 4–0 home playoff record against the Patriots — adds psychological weight for the home crowd and Broncos players familiar with winning big games inside this building.
🏆 Prediction
This battle shapes up as a classic defense-vs. offense chess match. The Patriots have the stronger offensive identity on paper and a clearer quarterback advantage — especially given the upheaval Denver faces under center — but Denver’s defense and home environment keep this close.
New England must protect Maye early, win third-down battles, and avoid turnovers. If they can establish the run and hold the Broncos’ rush in check, they’ll pull away late. Denver, on the other hand, needs a fast start, quality field position via special teams or takeaways, and efficient, mistake-free drives from Stidham to keep the game within reach.
Final Score Prediction:
➡️ Patriots 21, Broncos 20
In a game where points could be at a premium and mistakes magnified at every turn, New England’s balanced offense and quarterback play give them the edge, even in the face of Denver’s historic home success and ferocious defense.
Our Pick: Broncos +4.5
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