A busy Tuesday slate in the NHL brings several intriguing matchups from both the Atlantic and Pacific Divisions. We’re targeting three wagering angles with tight lines and underlying metrics that support disciplined goals totals and a confident moneyline pick. Let’s break them down with numbers, trends, and injuries that matter. Keep reading for our Tuesday NHL Best Bets Dec. 30 column.
NHL Best Bet: Devils/Maple Leafs under 6.5
Prediction: Under 6.5 goals
When two middling offenses meet and goaltending is shaky, an under total becomes far more attractive — especially at 6.5. Both New Jersey and Toronto have struggled to find consistent scoring, and the recent trends point toward defensive, low-scoring outcomes.
Why this total makes sense:
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Devils offense has cooled: New Jersey is around league-average in scoring but has flashed offense unevenly, often producing just a goal or two in recent outings. Their recent stretch has seen multiple tight, one- or two-goal affairs.
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Maple Leafs have been inconsistent: Toronto’s scorers — including Auston Matthews and William Nylander — have struggled for impact recently, and Nylander is listed day-to-day for this game, which could dampen goal production further.
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Goaltending skew: Maple Leafs netminders have combined for sub-.900 performances at times and Devils netminding split has been erratic — both suggest goals aren’t guaranteed, and teams may play more conservatively offensively to avoid turnovers.
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Head-to-head history: Recent meetings have seen modest scoring totals, not shootouts of offense.
With both teams capable of defense and goaltending swings, 6.5 goals is conservative and realistic — lean under.
NHL Best Bet: Hurricanes -128 (at Penguins)
Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes to win
This spot feels like a classic example of betting the better team in a matchup where their context gives them an edge.
Core reasons to back Carolina:
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Stronger roster overall: Carolina has been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, sporting a strong record and depth on forward lines led by Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Logan Stankoven.
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Key defenders returning: Defenseman K’Andre Miller is returning from injury, which stabilizes Carolina’s blue line at a critical juncture.
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Penguins have significant injury drag: Pittsburgh has dealt with the loss of Evgeni Malkin (upper-body, IR), removing a key offensive catalyst and leadership element.
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Trend and line support: Odds across books have the Hurricanes favored and the total under trending toward lower goal expectations, which fits Carolina’s style and Pittsburgh’s current offensive inconsistencies.
Carolina’s depth and more complete roster — especially with Miller’s return — gives them an advantage in a close divisional game.
NHL Best Bet: Flyers/Canucks under 6.5
Prediction: Under 6.5 goals
While a Flyers/Canucks game might feel like a potential goal fest on paper, the data suggests this one could stay under the total for a few key reasons:
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Flyers offensive output is modest: Philadelphia scores roughly ~2.9 goals per game and has shown they can grind defensive matchups when the opponent’s structure demands it.
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Canucks scoring inconsistencies: Vancouver’s offense has been erratic and not particularly high-flying this season — around ~2.7 goals per game — and head-to-head scoring has been limited.
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Recent matchup data: When these two teams met late last month, action tilted toward structured play rather than nonstop offense, and their most productive games were exceptions, not norms.
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Defensive focus: Recent league play has tilted toward tighter systems in midseason, as coaches prioritize structure over deep offensive pursuits, especially on back-to-back travel nights like this.
This total sits at 6.5 — and unlike high-octane teams like Tampa or Edmonton, these clubs appear more likely to play grinder hockey that keeps the puck in check.
Tuesday NHL Best Bets Dec. 30
- Devils/Maple Leafs under 6.5
- Carolina Hurricanes -128
- Flyers/Canucks under 6.5
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