Last Updated on October 30, 2025 1:18 am by Alex Becker
MILWAUKEE — A key early-season test on Thursday on NBA TV as the Golden State Warriors visit the Milwaukee Bucks, where our Warriors vs. Bucks prediction hinges on whether Golden State’s perimeter scoring overrides Milwaukee’s interior attack.
The Golden State Warriors are 4-1 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 4-1 ATS this season.
The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-1 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 4-0 ATS this season.
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Warriors vs. Bucks Odds: ML, Spread, Total
- Moneyline: Warriors ML (−132) / Bucks ML (+112)
- Spread: Warriors −2.5 (-110) / Bucks +2.5 (-110)
- Total: 231.5 (Over 231.5 (-115) / Under 231.5 (-105))
- Start Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- TV: NBA TV
Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Matchup Breakdown
- Pace & Shot Profile: Warriors push high-pace and rely heavily on 3-point volume as they are sixth in three-point attempts per game. Golden State averages 126.5 points per game, which is the fourth-most in the league. Meanwhile, the Bucks average 122.3 PPG at home and shoot efficiently from both mid-range (third in the NBA in 2-point field goal percentage) and deep (eighth in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage).
- On-Ball Creation: Golden State’s scoring is balanced—multiple double-figure contributors, led by Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Jonathan Kuminga. The Bucks lean on Giannis Antetokounmpo to attack the rim but he’s the only player on the team averaging over 16 points per game.
- Interior & Glass: Milwaukee owns the paint and rebounding edge, as they are 10th in total rebounds per game. The Bucks are also adept at defending the paint as they are third in rim protection this year. The Warriors’ strength lies in transition spacing and perimeter firepower (first in made three-pointers per game) rather than interior muscle.
- Injury/Status: Warriors: Moses Moody (thumb) is questionable but Golden State’s rotation is otherwise intact. Bucks: Kevin Porter Jr. (ankle) is out Thursday; Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is probable.
Betting Trends and Market Notes
- Golden State is 13-15-2 ATS in non-conference games since the start of last season.
- Golden State is 4-5 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
- Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season.
- 63% of the public bets are on Golden State at the time of this writing.
- This line opened at Golden State -1.5 but public bettors bet it up to Golden State -2.5. “Crowd bias” affect may leave Milwaukee a bit undervalued.
Standings Stakes & Betting Angles
- This early-season serves as a litmus test for both teams—how good are these teams really going to be this year? A matchup between 2 teams who have won a title in the past 5 years is a good way to find out.
- Totals note: Both offenses are elite in pace and efficiency; at 231.5, the number hinges on perimeter scoring variance. A jackrabbit start could tilt to the Over, while half-court tightening, stingy perimeter defense and/or cold shooting could keep it Under.
Warriors vs. Bucks Prediction & Expert Pick
Pick: Bucks +2.5 (−110). Our Warriors vs. Bucks prediction leans on Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (36.3 ppg, 14.0 rpg, and 7.0 apg this year) home-court advantage, fading the public, and the Bucks’ 5-0 record against the spread in their last 5 games.
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