Last Updated on October 6, 2025 7:27 pm by Michael Cash
Hedging basics help you protect bankroll, smooth variance, and lock portions of profit when prices move your way. Start with the Beginner Basics to understand when a hedge makes sense, then use the Expert Edge notes to price and size hedges like a pro.
Hedging Basics: When & Why
Beginner Basics: Hedge when (1) your original bet is winning and you want to reduce risk, (2) new information weakens your thesis, or (3) a life/roll constraint makes volatility unacceptable.
Expert Edge: A good hedge is about expected value (EV), not comfort. If the hedge price is poor, you might give back more EV than the risk you remove. Learn how long-horizon markets behave in Interpreting Futures Markets and the core mechanics in Futures Betting Explained.
Hedging Basics: How to Price the Hedge
Beginner Basics: Convert both sides to implied probability. Your goal is a combined position that meets your risk target without donating unnecessary edge to the book.
Expert Edge: Compare hedge offers across shops before entry—small price gaps matter. If your fair probability is far from the live price, shop the hedge first. When time allows, place limit-style entries live rather than hitting the first number.
Partial vs Full Hedges
Beginner Basics: A full hedge neutralizes most outcome risk; a partial hedge trims downside while keeping upside.
Expert Edge: Size hedges in units, not emotion. If your standard stake is 1.0u, partials of 0.25–0.5u often protect enough without crushing EV. For a durable staking framework, see Betting Units & Staking Plans.
Live Hedging (In-Game)
Beginner Basics: Live lines move fast after scores, penalties, or injuries. If the market steams against your original read, a small live hedge can right-size exposure.
Expert Edge: Enter on natural pauses (TV timeouts, power-play ends) when spreads/totals normalize. Use structured tactics in Live / In-Game Betting instead of panic clicks after a goal or turnover.
Futures Hedging Examples
- Conference/Title paths: As a team advances, prices compress. Consider trimming when your model shows limited remaining edge, or roll exposure into opponent derivatives.
- Awards markets: Narrative shifts can evaporate value overnight. Hedge only when price fairly reflects your downgrade—not just because the board moved.
- Win totals: Late-season leverage games are ideal for partial offsets via moneylines or alt totals rather than cash-out offers.
Cost of Hedging
Beginner Basics: Every hedge pays vig. Too many “comfort hedges” can erase long-term profit.
Expert Edge: Favor organic reductions (e.g., opposing derivatives or better numbers at other books) over platform cash-outs that bake in additional hold.
Common Mistakes
- Hedging winners too early: Let strong edges breathe unless your risk limits demand trimming.
- All-or-nothing thinking: Partial hedges often maximize EV-to-risk.
- No plan: Decide when you’ll hedge and how much before the game or round starts.
Use these hedging basics to set rules: price first, size in units, and let EV—not anxiety—drive decisions.
FAQs: Hedging Basics
Should I always hedge? No. Hedge when the price is fair and risk reduction aligns with your bankroll rules.
Is cash-out a good hedge? Often not—compare the offer to your fair price and to numbers at other books.
How big should a hedge be? Start with 25–50% of your original stake; adjust to meet risk targets.
Responsible Gaming
Keep betting within limits. For confidential help, visit the National Council on Problem Gambling.
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