Arbitrage and middling are advanced betting tactics that take advantage of line discrepancies across sportsbooks. Arbitrage locks in profit by betting both sides at favorable prices. Middling risks a small loss for the chance at a double win. This guide explains both strategies, with examples, pros, cons, and risk management. For a neutral overview, see Wikipedia: Arbitrage betting.
What Is Arbitrage in Sports Betting?
Arbitrage betting (or “arbing”) means betting both sides of the same game at different sportsbooks when odds create an overlap that guarantees profit, no matter the outcome.
Example of Arbitrage
Book A: Team X +105, Book B: Team Y +105. If you bet $100 on each, you’ll profit $5 regardless of winner. The difference in hold creates a no-risk opportunity.
Key Notes on Arbitrage
- Small margins: Most arbs are 1–3% profit opportunities.
- Fast-moving: Prices adjust quickly; windows can be seconds to minutes.
- Limits/flags: Books often limit or restrict accounts that arb regularly.
- Capital intensive: To scale, you need balances across multiple sportsbooks.
What Is Middling in Sports Betting?
Middling occurs when you bet opposite sides of a spread/total at different numbers, creating overlap where both can win. It’s riskier than arbing but offers bigger upside.
Example of Middling
Book A: Patriots -3.5 (-110). Book B: Opponent +7.5 (-110). If final margin = 4–7, you win both bets. Outside that range, you break even or lose small juice.
Key Notes on Middling
- Profit potential: Double-win if outcome lands in the “middle.”
- Risk: If outside the window, one side loses and you pay vig.
- Best in volatile markets: NFL key numbers (3, 7), CBB totals, live/in-game swings.
- Volume-driven: Needs many attempts to smooth variance.
Pros & Cons of Arbitrage and Middling
Arbitrage Pros
- Guaranteed profit (if executed correctly).
- Good for testing book pricing differences.
Arbitrage Cons
- Tiny returns per bet (1–3%).
- Book limits/flags likely.
- Requires capital and multiple accounts.
Middling Pros
- Higher upside per bet (double-win potential).
- Fun and rewarding when it hits.
Middling Cons
- No guarantee of profit.
- High variance; bankroll swings possible.
- Juice eats into long-run margins if middles don’t land often.
Tips for Using These Strategies
- Line shopping: Multiple books = more chances to find edges. See How to Shop Betting Lines.
- Focus on key numbers: NFL spreads (3, 7), NBA totals (multiples of 5), CBB volatility.
- Start small: Practice with small stakes to understand swings.
- Bankroll discipline: Don’t let the lure of “free money” lead to overexposure. See Bankroll Management.
FAQs: Arbitrage & Middling
Is arbitrage betting legal? Yes, but sportsbooks dislike it and may limit accounts that do it regularly.
What’s better: arbitrage or middling? Arbitrage guarantees small profit but is hard to scale. Middling has variance but higher upside.
Can you arb or middle live bets? Yes, but lines move faster and risks increase with latency.
Related Guides
Responsible Gaming
Arbing and middling can be useful, but they aren’t magic. Protect your bankroll, expect variance, and avoid chasing when edges aren’t real.