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Prop Betting Explained | Player & Team Props, Pricing

Prop betting focuses on player or team outcomes—like passing yards, shots on goal, or strikeouts—rather than the final score. Props can be softer than main markets, but they’re more news-sensitive and often carry higher hold. This guide explains types of props, how books price them, timing, examples, and common mistakes. For a neutral primer, see Wikipedia: Proposition bets.

What Is a Prop Bet?

A prop (proposition) bet is a wager on a specific outcome inside the game—player or team—rather than who wins. Props can be offered pregame and live/in-game.

Common Prop Types

  • Player counting stats: NFL passing/rushing/receiving yards; NBA points/rebounds/assists; NHL shots; MLB strikeouts/total bases.
  • Team props: Team totals, first to X points, first period/quarter/inning scoring.
  • Milestones & ladders: Tiered alt lines (e.g., 25+, 30+, 35+ points) with escalating prices.
  • Yes/No events: Anytime touchdown scorer, to record a hit, to make 3+ threes.
  • Same-Game Parlays (SGP): Props combined within one game with correlation priced in by the book.

How Props Are Priced (and Why They Move)

  • Projections: Books start from per-minute/usage/efficiency models (pace, matchup, role).
  • News sensitivity: Role changes (starter → bench), minutes limits, injuries, weather (NFL/MLB) can swing numbers quickly.
  • Hold/limits: Props usually have higher hold and lower limits than sides/totals—shop aggressively.

Timing: When to Bet Props

  • Early (if you have info): Beat market before role/minutes news is widely priced in.
  • After confirmations: When lineups, snap counts, goalie/pitcher status are official, misprices can still exist across books.
  • Live/in-game: Prop menus thin out, but pace and role changes can create edges if you’re fast. See Live / In-Game Betting.

Shopping Prop Lines

  1. Compare 3–5 books: A 0.5 rebound or 2.5 yards difference is meaningful—and prices vary.
  2. Check alt lines: Ladders sometimes offer better risk/reward than standard lines if your edge is large.
  3. Mind the juice: Prop holds are higher; -125 vs -110 matters. See Vig and Juice Explained and How to Shop Betting Lines.

Sport-Specific Angles

  • NFL: Snap share, target share, routes run, opponent coverage tendencies, weather (wind/rain).
  • NBA: Minutes and usage dominate; pace, foul risk, blowout risk, back-to-backs.
  • MLB: Starting pitcher vs lineup K%/BB%, pitch counts, weather, umpire tendencies (where available).
  • NHL: Line combos, PP/PK roles, shot volume vs quality, opponent shot suppression.

Examples

NBA Points Prop Example

Player’s season avg 22.0 PPG; teammate sits, usage +4%. Pace up opponent. Books post 21.5 (-120). If your projection is 24.1, either standard Over or an alt ladder (25+ at + odds) can be justified—shop both.

NFL Receiving Yards Example

Wind forecast drops explosives; defense funnels short throws. Book at 59.5 (-110). You project 52.3 → Under or alt Under (50.5 at plus money) depending on distribution.

MLB Strikeouts Example

Starter with 27% K vs high-K lineup, neutral weather, generous ump. Line 6.5 (+115). Your projection 7.1 suggests small Over; compare books and consider 7+ at a better price.

Bankroll & Risk Management

  • Small units: 0.5–1.0% per prop; props have higher variance and hold.
  • Diversify across markets: Don’t stack too many correlated props (team total Over + multiple player Overs).
  • Track CLV analog: Record your line vs the closing consensus to evaluate process quality. See CLV & Line Movement.

Common Mistakes

  • Betting without role clarity: Minutes/snap count changes destroy edges.
  • Chasing steam: If the move happened, look for buyback or pass.
  • Ignoring correlation: SGP legs are priced for correlation—don’t expect “true odds.”
  • Forgetting hold: Prop markets can be expensive; line shop or skip.

FAQs: Prop Betting

Are props harder or easier than sides/totals? They can be easier if you track news/roles closely—but holds are higher and lines move fast.

What’s a good unit size for props? Many bettors use 0.5–1.0% per prop, smaller for ladders/SGPs due to variance.

Do books limit winning prop bettors? Some do faster than for sides/totals because props are more exploitable.

Related Guides

Responsible Gaming

Prop menus are fun but volatile. Keep stakes small, track results, and set limits so betting stays enjoyable.