How to bet on NFL starts with learning the main markets—moneyline, point spread, and totals—then mastering timing, key numbers (3, 7), and line shopping. This guide walks you through the essentials, plus parlays/teasers, props, bankroll tips, and common mistakes. For a neutral primer on the sport, see Wikipedia’s American football overview. For sentiment data, open today’s NFL public betting chart.
Odds 101: Moneyline, Spread, Totals
Moneyline (Pick the Winner)
Back a team straight up (e.g., -150 favorite, +130 underdog). Favorites have negative prices; underdogs positive.
Point Spread (Win by/Lose within)
The book handicaps the favorite (e.g., -3) and gives points to the dog (e.g., +3). You’re betting the margin. Key numbers 3 and 7 matter most.
Totals (Over/Under)
Bet on combined points. Weather, pace, injuries, and matchups move these numbers throughout the week.
Key Numbers: 3 and 7 (Why Half-Points Matter)
- 3 and 7: Most common NFL margins. Moving across these is a big deal (e.g., +2.5 → +3, +6.5 → +7).
- Secondary keys: 6 and 10 show up often enough to matter.
- Rule of thumb: Near key numbers, the number often beats a slightly better price.
When to Bet: Timing & Line Movement
- Early week (Sun–Tue): Smaller limits but sharper moves. Great for anticipating news and public trends.
- Midweek (Wed–Fri): Injury reports clarify; numbers settle.
- Weekend & gameday: Heaviest public action. Dogs in popular games sometimes get better late numbers.
Study price action and closing numbers: see Closing Line Value (CLV) & Line Movement.
How to Shop NFL Betting Lines
- Compare 3–5 books: Check both the number and the price.
- Prioritize keys: +3.5 (-115) may beat +3 (-108). Context and movement matter.
- Reduced juice: -105 vs -110 drops your break-even from 52.38% to 51.22%.
Full walkthrough: How to Shop Betting Lines.
Parlays, Teasers, and Props
Parlays
Combine outcomes for bigger payouts—but higher hold/variance. Keep stakes small if you play them for fun.
Teasers
Move the spread in your favor (e.g., 6-point teaser). NFL teasers around 3 and 7 can be powerful—if price is fair and totals aren’t too low.
Props
Player and team props are news-sensitive (injuries, matchups, pace). Lines can be softer but carry higher holds; shop aggressively.
Bankroll & Risk Management
- Units: 0.5%–2% of bankroll per bet; 1% is a common default.
- Exposure caps: Limit daily stake (e.g., ≤5–7% of bankroll).
- Don’t chase: Losses don’t justify bigger bets. See Bankroll Management.
Using Public Betting Data (the Right Way)
Public Ticket % vs Money % offers context for timing and price—especially near key numbers. Learn how to read it in our NFL Public Betting guide and track real-time splits on the NFL chart.
Examples
Spread Example
Early: Dog +3 (-110). Late: Dog +3.5 (-115). Pick: If market drifts toward the favorite and you like the dog, waiting for +3.5 can be worth the extra vig.
Total Example
Weather alert shifts a total from 44.5 to 43. If you like the Under, early numbers beat the move; if you like the Over, wait for the market to bottom out.
Common Mistakes
- Ignoring keys: Treat +3 and +3.5 as different bets.
- Betting the first price you see: Always line shop.
- Overweighting parlays: Fun, but variance-heavy and higher hold.
- Confusing tickets with dollars: Money % plus line movement tells the story.
FAQs: How to Bet on NFL
What’s the best first market for beginners? Moneyline is simplest; spreads are most common; totals reward weather/injury awareness.
When should I bet early vs. late? If you expect the market to move against your side, bet early. If it should move toward you, wait.
Do I need multiple sportsbooks? Yes, if you want best numbers/prices and better long-term ROI.
Related Guides
- Closing Line Value (CLV) & Line Movement
- How to Shop Betting Lines
- Bankroll Management
- Vig and Juice Explained
- NFL Public Betting
Responsible Gaming
Bet responsibly. Set limits, track results, and seek help if betting stops being fun.